Malek Žiga, Verburg Peter H
Institute for Environmental studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands.
Land-Use Systems Group Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland.
Land Degrad Dev. 2021 Nov;32(17):4954-4973. doi: 10.1002/ldr.4083. Epub 2021 Sep 24.
Modelling future change to land use and land cover is done as part of many local and global scenario environmental assessments. Nevertheless, there are still considerable challenges related to simulating land-use responses to climate change. Mostly, climate change is considered by changing the temperature and precipitation, affecting the spatial distribution and productivity of future land use and land cover as result of differential changes in growing conditions. Other climate change effects, such as changes in the water resources needed to support future cropland expansion and intensification, are often neglected. In this study, we demonstrate how including different types of responses to climate change influences the simulation of future changes to land use and land cover, and land management. We study the influence of including different climate change effects in land system modeling step by step. The results show that land system models need to include numerous simultaneous climate change effects, particularly when looking at adaptation options such as implementing irrigation. Otherwise, there is a risk of biased impact estimates leading either to under- or overestimation of the consequences of land use change, including land degradation. Spatial land system models therefore need to be developed accounting for a multitude of climate change impacts, uncertainties related to climate data, and an assessment of the sensitivity of the outcomes toward the decisions of modellers on representing climate change impacts.
对未来土地利用和土地覆盖变化进行建模是许多地方和全球环境情景评估的一部分。然而，在模拟土地利用对气候变化的响应方面仍存在相当大的挑战。大多数情况下，通过改变温度和降水来考虑气候变化，由于生长条件的差异变化，这会影响未来土地利用和土地覆盖的空间分布及生产力。其他气候变化影响，如支持未来农田扩张和集约化所需水资源的变化，往往被忽视。在本研究中，我们展示了纳入不同类型的气候变化响应如何影响对未来土地利用、土地覆盖变化及土地管理的模拟。我们逐步研究在土地系统建模中纳入不同气候变化影响的作用。结果表明，土地系统模型需要同时纳入众多气候变化影响，尤其是在考虑诸如实施灌溉等适应方案时。否则，存在影响估计偏差的风险，可能导致对土地利用变化后果（包括土地退化）的低估或高估。因此，需要开发空间土地系统模型，以考虑多种气候变化影响、与气候数据相关的不确定性，以及评估结果对建模者在表示气候变化影响方面决策的敏感性。
