Department of Preventive Medicine, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Facultad de Ciencias, Especialidad Medicina del Deporte Y La Actividad Física, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, Chile.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 26;12(1):12699. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-16934-5.
We examined time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030 by sex, race/skin color, educational attainment, and state capitals. Self-reported body weight and height of 730,309 adults (≥ 18 years) from the Vigitel study were collected by telephone interview between 2006 and 2019. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to predict the prevalence of body mass index (BMI) categories as a function of time by 2030. The prevalence of obesity increased from 11.8% in 2006 to 20.3% in 2019. The projected prevalences by 2030 are estimated to be 68.1% for overweight, 29.6% for obesity, and 9.3% for obesity classes II and III. Women, black and other minority ethnicities, middle-aged adults, adults with ≤ 7 years of education, and in Northern and Midwestern capitals are estimated to have higher obesity prevalence by 2030. Our findings indicate a sustained increase in the obesity epidemic in all sociodemographic subgroups and across the country. Obesity may reach three out of 10 adults by 2030.
我们研究了 2006 年至 2030 年期间巴西成年人中按性别、种族/肤色、教育程度和州府划分的时间趋势和肥胖流行情况。通过电话访谈收集了来自 Vigitel 研究的 730309 名成年人（≥18 岁）的自我报告体重和身高，收集时间为 2006 年至 2019 年。使用多变量逻辑回归模型预测 2030 年时体重指数（BMI）类别随时间的流行情况。肥胖的患病率从 2006 年的 11.8%上升到 2019 年的 20.3%。到 2030 年，超重的预计患病率为 68.1%，肥胖的预计患病率为 29.6%，肥胖 II 级和 III 级的预计患病率为 9.3%。预计到 2030 年，女性、黑人和其他少数族裔、中年成年人、受教育程度≤7 年的成年人以及北部和中西部州府的肥胖患病率更高。我们的研究结果表明，肥胖流行在所有社会人口统计学亚组和全国各地都呈持续上升趋势。到 2030 年，可能每 10 个成年人中就有 3 个肥胖。
