Nzei John M, Mwanzia Virginia M, Ngarega Boniface K, Musili Paul M, Wang Qing-Feng, Chen Jin-Ming, Li Zhi-Zhong
Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Plants (Basel). 2022 Jul 19;11(14):1874. doi: 10.3390/plants11141874.
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global temperature rise of 4.3 ± 0.7 °C by 2100 and an extinction of 8.5% in one out of every six species. Australia's aquatic ecosystem is no exception; habitat loss, fragmentation, and loss of biodiversity are being experienced. As the center for species distribution, it presents the culturally, ecologically, and scientifically important genus as the best candidate for habitat suitability assessment in climate change, whose habitat suitability is presumed to decline. The models were run according to the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, using one general circulation model (GCM). Projections were made for the current, past, and future in medium (4.5) and high (8.5) representative concentration pathways. Significantly, bio2 and bio15 were highly preferred among the species. Less distribution was noted in West Australia compared to the north, east, and south of the continent, while north of the continent in Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland indicate more habitat contractions compared to the east and southeast of Queensland and New South Wales, although it receives high precipitation. Generally, the species respond variably to both temperature and precipitation variables which is a key species response factor for planners and decision makers in species habitat and biodiversity conservation.
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预测，到2100年全球气温将上升4.3±0.7摄氏度，每六个物种中就有一个物种灭绝率达8.5%。澳大利亚的水生生态系统也不例外；正经历着栖息地丧失、碎片化以及生物多样性丧失的情况。作为物种分布中心，它呈现出在气候变化中进行栖息地适宜性评估的最佳候选文化、生态和科学上重要的属，其栖息地适宜性预计会下降。这些模型是根据最大熵（MaxEnt）方法运行的，使用了一个通用环流模型（GCM）。针对中等（4.5）和高（8.5）代表性浓度路径下的当前、过去和未来情况进行了预测。值得注意的是，bio2和bio15在这些物种中备受青睐。与澳大利亚大陆的北部、东部和南部相比，西澳大利亚的分布较少，而在西澳大利亚、北领地和昆士兰州的大陆北部，与昆士兰州东部和东南部以及新南威尔士州相比，栖息地收缩更为明显，尽管该地区降水较多。总体而言，该物种对温度和降水变量的反应各不相同，这对物种栖息地和生物多样性保护的规划者和决策者来说是一个关键的物种反应因素。
