Ferretti Fabrizio, Mariani Michele, Sarti Elena
Department of Communication and Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy.
Front Glob Womens Health. 2022 Jul 11;3:875813. doi: 10.3389/fgwh.2022.875813. eCollection 2022.
In this paper, we applied the concept of convergence to examine the evolution of smoking prevalence among women in 191 countries worldwide from 1990 to 2019. First, the non-linear time-varying factor model proposed by Phillips and Sul was adopted to identify potential clusters (clubs), wherein groups of countries converge to similar female smoking rates. Second, an ordered logit regression model was used to assess the impact of cigarette affordability on the probability of falling within a given cluster. The hypothesis of global convergence was rejected. However, the clustering algorithm successfully identified five and nine clubs, within countries with increasing and decreasing smoking prevalence, respectively. A higher relative income-price ratio (i.e., lower cigarette affordability) increased the likelihood of belonging to a club of countries with a low prevalence of female tobacco smoking.
在本文中，我们运用收敛概念研究了1990年至2019年全球191个国家女性吸烟率的演变情况。首先，采用菲利普斯和苏提出的非线性时变因素模型来识别潜在的集群（俱乐部），即各国群体趋向于相似的女性吸烟率。其次，使用有序逻辑回归模型评估香烟可负担性对落入给定集群概率的影响。全球收敛假说被拒绝。然而，聚类算法成功识别出五个和九个俱乐部，分别存在于女性吸烟率上升和下降的国家中。相对收入价格比越高（即香烟可负担性越低），属于女性吸烟率低的国家俱乐部的可能性就越大。
