Evidence of the need for modified well-stirred model in vitro to in vivo extrapolation.

In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE), an approach for hepatic clearance (CL) prediction used worldwide, remains controversial due to systematic underprediction. Among the various probable factors, the original assumption of the hepatic mathematical model (i.e., the well-stirred model, WSM) may become problematic, leading to the underestimation of drug CL. Having a similar prerequisite that the well-stirred conditions are homogenous with perfectly mixed reactants, but using a different driving concentration, the modified well-stirred model (MWSM) stands apart from the WSM. However, we believe that both models should coexist so that the entire well-stirred scenario can be completely illustrated. Consequently, we collected published data from the literature and employed a logistic regression method to differentiate the optimal timing of use between WSM and MWSM in drug CL prediction. Generally, variances adopted in the regression, including partition coefficient (logP), fraction unbound (fu), volumes of distribution at steady-state (Vss), and mean residence time (MRT), corresponded to our assumption when protein-facilitated uptake was considered. Furthermore, a new empirical approach was introduced to allow practical use of the MWSM. The results showed that this model could provide a more precise prediction compared to previous empirical approaches. Therefore, these preliminary results not only delineated a more detailed structure and mechanism of MWSM but also highlighted its necessity and potential.