Centro de Investigación Mariña da Universidade de Vigo (CIM-UVigo), Illa de Toralla s/n, 36331, Vigo, Spain.
Departamento de Ecología y Biología Animal, Universidade de Vigo, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Campus Lagoas Marcosende s/n, 36310 Vigo, Spain.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Aug 9;119(32):e2205495119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2205495119. Epub 2022 Aug 1.
Jensen's inequality predicts that the response of any given system to average constant conditions is different from its average response to varying ones. Environmental fluctuations in abiotic conditions are pervasive on Earth; yet until recently, most ecological research has addressed the effects of multiple environmental drivers by assuming constant conditions. One could thus expect to find significant deviations in the magnitude of their effects on ecosystems when environmental fluctuations are considered. Drawing on experimental studies published during the last 30 years reporting more than 950 response ratios ( = 5,700), we present a comprehensive analysis of the role that environmental fluctuations play across the tree of life. In contrast to the predominance of interactive effects of global-change drivers reported in the literature, our results show that their cumulative effects were additive (58%), synergistic (26%), and antagonistic (16%) when environmental fluctuations were present. However, the dominant type of interaction varied by trophic level (autotrophs: interactive; heterotrophs: additive) and phylogenetic group (additive in Animalia; additive and positive antagonism in Chromista; negative antagonism and synergism in Plantae). In addition, we identify the need to tackle how complex communities respond to fluctuating environments, widening the phylogenetic and biogeographic ranges considered, and to consider other drivers beyond warming and acidification as well as longer timescales. Environmental fluctuations must be taken into account in experimental and modeling studies as well as conservation plans to better predict the nature, magnitude, and direction of the impacts of global change on organisms and ecosystems.
詹森不等式预测，任何给定系统对平均恒定条件的反应与其对变化条件的平均反应不同。地球环境中的非生物条件波动普遍存在；然而，直到最近，大多数生态研究都是通过假设恒定条件来解决多种环境驱动因素的影响。因此，当考虑环境波动时，人们可以预期会发现它们对生态系统的影响程度存在显著偏差。我们借鉴了过去 30 年发表的实验研究报告，这些研究报告中报告了超过 950 个响应比（=5700），对生命之树中环境波动所起的作用进行了全面分析。与文献中报道的全球变化驱动因素相互作用占主导地位的情况相反，我们的研究结果表明，当环境波动存在时，它们的累积效应是相加的（58%）、协同的（26%）和拮抗的（16%）。然而，相互作用的主要类型因营养水平（自养生物：相互作用；异养生物：相加）和系统发育组（动物：相加；Chromista：相加和正拮抗；植物：负拮抗和协同）而异。此外，我们还发现需要解决复杂群落如何对波动环境做出反应的问题，扩大考虑的系统发育和生物地理范围，并考虑除升温和酸化以外的其他驱动因素以及更长的时间尺度。在实验和建模研究以及保护计划中，必须考虑环境波动，以更好地预测全球变化对生物和生态系统的影响的性质、程度和方向。
