The predictability of fluctuating environments shapes the thermal tolerance of marine ectotherms and compensates narrow safety margins.

Aquatic species living in productive coastal habitats with abundant primary producers have evolved in highly dynamic diel and seasonally fluctuating environments in terms of, for example, water temperature and dissolved oxygen. However, how environmental fluctuations shape the thermal tolerance of marine species is still poorly understood. Here we hypothesize that the degree of predictability of the diel environmental fluctuations in the coastal area can explain the thermal response of marine species. To test this hypothesis, we measured the thermal tolerance of 17 species of marine ectotherm from tropical, warm temperate and cold temperate latitudes under two levels of oxygen (around saturation and at supersaturation), and relate the results to their site-specific temperature and oxygen fluctuation and their environmental predictability. We demonstrate that oxygen and temperature fluctuations at tropical latitudes have a higher predictability than those at warm and cold temperate latitudes. Further, we show that marine species that are adapted to high predictability have the potential to tune their thermal performance when exposed to oxygen supersaturation, despite being constrained within a narrow safety margin. We advocate that the predictability of the environmental fluctuation needs to be considered when measuring and forecasting the response of marine animals to global warming.