Cerqueti Roy, Tramontana Fabio, Ventura Marco
Sapienza University of Rome, Italy.
London South Bank University, UK.
Math Soc Sci. 2022 Sep;119:97-107. doi: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2022.07.003. Epub 2022 Aug 3.
We introduce a dynamical system to model the complex interaction between COVID-19 and economic activity. The model introduces some novelties not accounted by SIR-like models. The equilibrium of the system is an unstable focus, with fluctuations having increasing size and periodicity. Numerical simulations of the model produce waves which reproduce the pandemic dynamics. In observing the stylized facts linking economics and pandemic and stating related reasonable assumptions, we obtain a Lotka-Volterra co-dynamics. This outcome is confirmed by extensive simulations. The outcomes obtained qualitatively replicate some important stylized facts deepening the knowledge about the role of some parameters in their origin and eventually in their shaping.
我们引入一个动态系统来模拟新冠疫情与经济活动之间的复杂相互作用。该模型引入了一些类似SIR模型未考虑到的新特性。系统的平衡点是一个不稳定焦点,波动的规模和周期性不断增加。该模型的数值模拟产生的波动再现了疫情动态。在观察将经济与疫情联系起来的典型事实并陈述相关合理假设时,我们得到了一个洛特卡 - 沃尔泰拉共同动态。广泛的模拟证实了这一结果。定性获得的结果复制了一些重要的典型事实,深化了我们对某些参数在其起源以及最终形成过程中所起作用的认识。