Department of Economics, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 26;16(3):e0248302. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248302. eCollection 2021.
Among over 200 COVID-19 affected countries, some are fighting to "flatten the curve", while some others are considering reopening after lockdown. It remains unclear how different reopening strategies obstruct the local virus containment and impact the economy. We develop a model with travelers across heterogeneous epicenters. A low-risk area attempts to safely reopen utilizing internal policies, such as social distancing and contact tracing, and external policies, including capacity quota, quarantine, and tests. Simulations based on the COVID-19 scenario show that external policies differ in efficacy. They can substitute each other and complement internal policies. Simultaneous relaxation of both channels may lead to a new wave of COVID-19 and large economic costs. This work highlights the importance of quantitative assessment prior to implementing reopening strategies.
在超过 200 个受 COVID-19 影响的国家中，一些国家正在努力“拉平曲线”，而另一些国家则在考虑封锁后重新开放。目前尚不清楚不同的重新开放策略如何阻碍当地的病毒控制并影响经济。我们开发了一个模型，其中包括来自不同疫情中心的旅行者。低风险地区试图利用内部政策（如社交距离和接触者追踪）和外部政策（包括容量配额、隔离和测试）安全地重新开放。基于 COVID-19 情景的模拟表明，外部政策的效果不同。它们可以相互替代，并补充内部政策。同时放宽这两个渠道可能会导致 COVID-19 的新一波疫情和巨大的经济成本。这项工作强调了在实施重新开放策略之前进行定量评估的重要性。
