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付之一炬:加州温室气体减排成果或因 2020 年山火化为乌有。

Up in smoke: California's greenhouse gas reductions could be wiped out by 2020 wildfires.

机构信息

Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, 650 Charles E. Young Dr. S., 56-070 CHS Box 951772, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA.

Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, 1307 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.

出版信息

Environ Pollut. 2022 Oct 1;310:119888. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119888. Epub 2022 Aug 5.

Abstract

In this short communication, we estimate that California's wildfire carbon dioxide equivalent (COe) emissions from 2020 are approximately two times higher than California's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions since 2003. Without considering future vegetation regrowth, COe emissions from the 2020 wildfires could be the second most important source in the state above either industry or electrical power generation. Regrowth may partly of fully occur over a long period, but due to exigencies of the climate crisis most of the regrowth will not occur quickly enough to avert greater than 1.5 degrees of warming. Global monetized damages caused by COe from in 2020 wildfire emissions amount to some $7.1 billion USD. Our analysis suggests that significant societal benefits could accrue from larger investments in improved forest management and stricter controls on new development in fire-prone areas at the wildland-urban interface.

摘要

在这篇简短的交流中,我们估计,2020 年加州野火产生的二氧化碳当量(COe)排放量约为 2003 年以来加州温室气体(GHG)减排总量的两倍。如果不考虑未来植被的再生,2020 年野火产生的 COe 排放量可能是仅次于工业或发电的全州第二大重要排放源。再生可能会在很长一段时间内部分或全部发生,但由于气候危机的紧迫性,大部分再生不会足够快地发生,以避免升温超过 1.5 度。2020 年野火排放的 COe 造成的全球货币化损失达 71 亿美元。我们的分析表明,从更大的投资中可以获得显著的社会效益,例如改善森林管理和在野火易发地区的城乡交错带对新开发项目实施更严格的控制。

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