Crawford Megan M, Wright George
Edinburgh Napier University Business School, 219 Colinton Rd, Edinburgh EH14 1DJ, UK.
Strathclyde Business School, 199 Cathedral St., Glasgow G1 1XQ, UK.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2022 Oct;183:121937. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121937. Epub 2022 Aug 5.
Hundreds of scenarios were developed across the world in 2020, aimed at generating forward-looking conversations, better understanding for COVID-19 transmission rates, trialling economic outcomes, and stress-testing existing systems in light of the developing pandemic. In response, Cairns & Wright (2020) questioned the value of these mass-produced scenarios created retroactively to existing crises. We address their concerns by evaluating 213 COVID-19 scenarios developed in the first wave of the pandemic. We use two yardsticks as guiding maps against which we plot each scenario's profile and test for values of high-quality process and content. Our analyses reveal various points of high low qualities, in both process and content. Though most reported processes fell towards lower quality standards, and content largely carried generic applications, the prolific levels of exploratory narratives reflected a mixture of high and low-quality values. Together, our papers develop and reinforce the message that scenario interventions, especially in times of crisis, should reflect more proactive efforts and ensure powerful stakeholders, decision-makers, and affected community members are included in the development of scenarios.
2020年，全球设计了数百种情景，旨在引发前瞻性对话，更好地了解新冠病毒传播率，测试经济结果，并根据不断发展的疫情对现有系统进行压力测试。对此，凯恩斯和赖特（2020年）质疑了这些针对现有危机事后创建的大量情景的价值。我们通过评估在疫情第一波期间制定的213种新冠病毒情景来回应他们的担忧。我们使用两个标准作为指导方针，据此描绘每个情景的概况，并测试高质量过程和内容的价值。我们的分析揭示了过程和内容方面高低质量的不同点。尽管大多数报告的过程都朝着较低的质量标准发展，且内容大多具有一般适用性，但大量的探索性叙述反映出高低质量价值的混合。我们的论文共同提出并强化了这样一个观点，即情景干预，尤其是在危机时期，应体现出更积极主动的努力，并确保强大的利益相关者、决策者和受影响的社区成员参与情景的制定。
