The structural change and influencing factors of carbon transfer network in global value chains.

Based on the gross trade accounting method and WIOD data, this paper quantifies the global carbon transfer from 2000 to 2014. The social network analysis and temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) are employed to investigate the structural change and influencing factors of global carbon transfer network from a global value chains (GVCs) perspective. Results show that the deepening of the GVC division connection has enhanced the relations in global carbon transfer network, and the low reciprocity and high disassortativity lie in the difference in GVC division positions among economies. Block model analysis manifests that Plate Ⅱ acts as the engine plate in the network which consists of China and the other four economies. The GVC division connection and relative GVC division position significantly facilitate the formation of carbon emission transfer relations. Moreover, economies' attribute effects and endogenous network structure effects are non-negligible important determinants of network formation.