School of Mathematics and Computing (Mathematics), Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Sci Rep. 2022 Aug 12;12(1):13773. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-18135-6.
Apart from the incidence and mortality caused by it, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has had a significant impact on other diseases. This study aimed to estimate the influences of COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and the number of TB-associated deaths in Republic of Korea. A dynamic compartment model incorporating age-structure was developed for studying TB transmission and progression using the Korean population data. After calibration with notification of incidence data from South Korea, the TB burden over 6 years (2020-2025) was predicted under the nine different scenarios. Under the scenario of strong social distancing and low-level health service disruption, new TB cases were reduced by 761 after 1 year in comparison to the baseline. However, in the elderly population, social distancing had little impact on TB incidence. On the other hand, the number of TB-related deaths mainly depends on the level of health service disruption for TB care. It was predicted that with a high degree of health service disruption, the number of TB-related deaths would increase up to 155 in 1 year and 80 percent of the TB-related deaths would be in the elderly population. The decrease of tuberculosis incidence is significantly affected by social distancing, which is owing to reduction of contacts. The impact of health service disruption is dominant on TB-related deaths, which occurs mainly in the elderly. It suggests that it is important to monitor TB-related deaths by COVID-19 because the TB burden of the elderly is high in the Republic of Korea.
除了由其引起的发病率和死亡率外，冠状病毒病（COVID-19）还对其他疾病产生了重大影响。本研究旨在估计 COVID-19 大流行对韩国结核病（TB）发病率和与 TB 相关的死亡人数的影响。本研究采用包含年龄结构的动态隔室模型，利用韩国人口数据研究 TB 的传播和进展。该模型通过与韩国的发病数据进行校准后，预测了 6 年（2020-2025 年）内 9 种不同情景下的 TB 负担。在严格的社会隔离和低水平的卫生服务中断的情景下，与基线相比，第 1 年新的 TB 病例减少了 761 例。然而，在老年人群中，社会隔离对 TB 发病率的影响很小。另一方面，TB 相关死亡人数主要取决于 TB 护理卫生服务中断的程度。预测，如果卫生服务严重中断，TB 相关死亡人数将在 1 年内增加到 155 人，80%的 TB 相关死亡人数将出现在老年人群中。TB 发病率的显著下降受到社会隔离的显著影响，这是由于接触减少所致。卫生服务中断的影响对与 TB 相关的死亡人数有主导作用，而这些死亡主要发生在老年人中。这表明，由于韩国老年人的 TB 负担较高，因此通过 COVID-19 监测与 TB 相关的死亡人数很重要。
