Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Institute of Agricultural and Food Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Int J Biometeorol. 2022 Oct;66(10):2009-2020. doi: 10.1007/s00484-022-02336-9. Epub 2022 Aug 13.
It is essential to understand how climate change and varieties affect crop phenology and yields to adapt to future climate change. The aim of this study was to analyse the phenological development trends of three winter wheat cultivars (1990-2020) to identify the most critical meteorological-climatic factors influencing the development and yield of the cultivars and to investigate the heat requirements for each phenological phase to reveal the potential of the different cultivars to adapt to the warming climate. The observed dates of green-up, the beginning of stem elongation, and the grain development advanced significantly, but the timing of maturity changed insignificantly during the period of 1990-2020. The most marked change was related to the shortening of the period from sowing to green-up. The green-up dates were related to the mean temperature of the period after sowing. The occurrence of stem elongation and grain development dates were negatively correlated with the mean temperature in May. Significant correlations were found between temperature and duration from sowing to green-up and positive from stem elongation to grain development. The change of cultivar led to earlier green-up and grain development dates, but cultivar choise had no influence on sowing, stem elongation, and maturity dates from 1990 to 2020. The newer cultivar Skagen was more successful in exploiting increased thermal resources. The heat requirements remained almost unchanged during the vegetative development period, while the heat amount required during the reproductive period increased by about 15%. These findings demonstrate that the choice of crop cultivars with higher thermal requirements may be an appropriate adaptation mean to achieve higher yields in response to climate change, at least in the middle latitudes.
了解气候变化和品种如何影响作物物候和产量对于适应未来气候变化至关重要。本研究的目的是分析三个冬小麦品种（1990-2020 年）的物候发育趋势，确定影响品种发育和产量的最关键气象气候因素，并研究每个物候阶段的热量需求，以揭示不同品种适应变暖气候的潜力。绿期、茎伸长开始和籽粒发育的观测日期显著提前，但在 1990-2020 年期间，成熟日期变化不大。最显著的变化与从播种到绿期的时间缩短有关。绿期日期与播种后期间的平均温度有关。茎伸长和籽粒发育日期的发生与 5 月份的平均温度呈负相关。在从播种到绿期和从茎伸长到籽粒发育期间，温度和持续时间之间存在显著的相关性，而且都是正相关。品种的变化导致绿期和籽粒发育日期提前，但在 1990 年至 2020 年期间，品种选择对播种、茎伸长和成熟日期没有影响。较新的品种 Skagen 更成功地利用了增加的热量资源。在营养生长期间，热量需求几乎保持不变，而在生殖期所需的热量量增加了约 15%。这些发现表明，选择具有更高热需求的作物品种可能是一种适当的适应手段，以在气候变化的情况下实现更高的产量，至少在中纬度地区是如此。
