State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2024 Oct 14;15(1):8847. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53216-2.
Global warming poses an unprecedented threat to agroecosystems. Although temperature increases are more pronounced during winter than in other seasons, the impact of winter warming on crop biomass carbon has not been elucidated. Here we integrate global observational data with a decade-long field experiment to uncover a significant negative correlation between winter soil temperature and crop biomass carbon. For every degree Celsius increase in winter soil temperature, straw and grain biomass carbon decreased by 6.6 ( ± 1.7) g kg and 10.2 ( ± 2.3) g kg, respectively. This decline is primarily attributed to the loss of soil organic matter and micronutrients induced by warming. Ignoring the adverse effects of winter warming on crop biomass carbon could result in an overestimation of total food production by 4% to 19% under future warming scenarios. Our research highlights the critical need to incorporate winter warming into agricultural productivity models for more effective climate adaptation strategies.
全球变暖给农业生态系统带来了前所未有的威胁。尽管冬季的升温比其他季节更为明显，但冬季变暖对作物生物量碳的影响尚未阐明。在这里，我们整合了全球观测数据和长达十年的田间实验，揭示了冬季土壤温度与作物生物量碳之间存在显著的负相关关系。冬季土壤温度每升高 1 摄氏度，秸秆和谷物生物量碳分别减少 6.6（±1.7）克/千克和 10.2（±2.3）克/千克。这种下降主要归因于变暖引起的土壤有机质和微量元素的损失。如果在未来变暖情景下忽视冬季变暖对作物生物量碳的不利影响，可能会导致对粮食总产量的高估幅度达到 4%至 19%。我们的研究强调了将冬季变暖纳入农业生产力模型的必要性，以制定更有效的气候适应策略。
