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一种考虑系统动力学的 COVID-19 条件下的新型疫苗供应链网络:人工智能算法

A new vaccine supply chain network under COVID-19 conditions considering system dynamic: Artificial intelligence algorithms.

作者信息

Kamran Mehdi A, Kia Reza, Goodarzian Fariba, Ghasemi Peiman

机构信息

Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Logistics, Tourism and Service Management, German University of Technology, Muscat, Oman.

Department of Industrial Engineering, Urmia University of Technology, Urmia, Iran.

出版信息

Socioecon Plann Sci. 2023 Feb;85:101378. doi: 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101378. Epub 2022 Aug 8.

Abstract

With the discovery of the COVID-19 vaccine, what has always been worrying the decision-makers is related to the distribution management, the vaccination centers' location, and the inventory control of all types of vaccines. As the COVID-19 vaccine is highly demanded, planning for its fair distribution is a must. University is one of the most densely populated areas in a city, so it is critical to vaccinate university students so that the spread of this virus is curbed. As a result, in the present study, a new stochastic multi-objective, multi-period, and multi-commodity simulation-optimization model has been developed for the COVID-19 vaccine's production, distribution, location, allocation, and inventory control decisions. In this study, the proposed supply chain network includes four echelons of manufacturers, hospitals, vaccination centers, and volunteer vaccine students. Vaccine manufacturers send the vaccines to the vaccination centers and hospitals after production. The students with a history of special diseases such as heart disease, corticosteroids, blood clots, etc. are vaccinated in hospitals because of accessing more medical care, and the rest of the students are vaccinated in the vaccination centers. Then, a system dynamic structure of the prevalence of COVID -19 in universities is developed and the vaccine demand is estimated using simulation, in which the demand enters the mathematical model as a given stochastic parameter. Thus, the model pursues some goals, namely, to minimize supply chain costs, maximize student desirability for vaccination, and maximize justice in vaccine distribution. To solve the proposed model, Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) and Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) algorithms are used. In terms of novelties, the most important novelties in the simulation model are considering the virtual education and exerted quarantine effect on estimating the number of the vaccines. In terms of the mathematical model, one of the remarkable contributions is paying attention to social distancing while receiving the injection and the possibility of the injection during working and non-working hours, and regarding the novelties in the solution methodology, a new heuristic method based on a meta-heuristic algorithm called Modified WOA with VNS (MVWOA) is developed. In terms of the performance metrics and the CPU time, the MOWOA is discovered with a superior performance than other given algorithms. Moreover, regarding the data, a case study related to the COVID-19 pandemic period in Tehran/Iran is provided to validate the proposed algorithm. The outcomes indicate that with the demand increase, the costs increase sharply while the vaccination desirability for students decreases with a slight slope.

摘要

随着新冠疫苗的发现,决策者一直担忧的问题涉及配送管理、疫苗接种中心的选址以及各类疫苗的库存控制。由于对新冠疫苗的需求量极大,规划其公平分配势在必行。大学是城市中人口最为密集的区域之一,因此为大学生接种疫苗对于遏制病毒传播至关重要。于是,在本研究中,针对新冠疫苗的生产、配送、选址、分配及库存控制决策,开发了一种新的随机多目标、多周期、多商品模拟优化模型。在本研究中,所提出的供应链网络包括制造商、医院、疫苗接种中心和学生志愿者这四个层级。疫苗制造商生产出疫苗后将其送往疫苗接种中心和医院。有心脏病、使用过皮质类固醇、有血栓等特殊疾病史的学生因能获得更多医疗护理而在医院接种疫苗,其余学生则在疫苗接种中心接种。然后,构建了大学中新冠疫情流行情况的系统动力学结构,并通过模拟估算疫苗需求,其中需求作为给定的随机参数输入数学模型。因此,该模型追求一些目标,即最小化供应链成本、最大化学生接种意愿以及最大化疫苗分配的公平性。为求解所提出的模型,使用了可变邻域搜索(VNS)算法和鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)。在新颖性方面,模拟模型中最重要的新颖之处在于在估算疫苗数量时考虑了虚拟教育和实施的隔离效果。在数学模型方面,一个显著贡献是在接种疫苗时关注社交距离以及工作和非工作时间接种的可能性,而在求解方法的新颖性方面,开发了一种基于元启发式算法的新启发式方法,称为带VNS的改进WOA(MVWOA)。在性能指标和CPU时间方面,发现MOWOA的性能优于其他给定算法。此外,在数据方面,提供了一个与伊朗德黑兰新冠疫情期间相关的案例研究来验证所提出的算法。结果表明,随着需求增加,成本急剧上升,而学生的接种意愿则略有下降。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4b07/9359548/0f6ad72c963d/gr1_lrg.jpg

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