Martonosi Susan E, Behzad Banafsheh, Cummings Kayla
Department of Mathematics, Harvey Mudd College, United States.
Department of Information Systems, College of Business Administration, California State University, Long Beach, United States.
Omega. 2021 Sep;103:102451. doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2021.102451. Epub 2021 Mar 25.
According to the World Health Organization, development of the COVID-19 vaccine is occurring in record time. Administration of the vaccine has started the same year as the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic. The United Nations emphasized the importance of providing COVID-19 vaccines as a global public good, which is accessible and affordable world-wide. Pricing the COVID-19 vaccines is a controversial topic. We use optimization and game theoretic approaches to model the COVID-19 U.S. vaccine market as a duopoly with two manufacturers Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. The results suggest that even in the context of very high production and distribution costs, the government can negotiate prices with the manufacturers to keep public sector prices as low as possible while meeting demand and ensuring each manufacturer earns a target profit. Furthermore, these prices are consistent with those currently predicted in the media.
根据世界卫生组织的数据，新冠疫苗的研发速度创历史记录。疫苗在宣布新冠疫情的同一年就开始接种。联合国强调了将新冠疫苗作为全球公共产品提供的重要性，这种疫苗应在全球范围内可获取且价格可承受。新冠疫苗定价是一个有争议的话题。我们运用优化和博弈论方法，将美国新冠疫苗市场建模为辉瑞 - 生物科技公司和莫德纳公司两家制造商的双头垄断市场。结果表明，即使在生产成本和分销成本非常高的情况下，政府仍可与制造商协商价格，在满足需求并确保每家制造商获得目标利润的同时，将公共部门的价格保持在尽可能低的水平。此外，这些价格与媒体目前预测的价格一致。
