School of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China.
School of International Economy and Trade, Wuxi University, Wuxi 214105, China.
J Environ Public Health. 2022 Aug 4;2022:1040999. doi: 10.1155/2022/1040999. eCollection 2022.
The purpose is to promote the sustainable development of wetland ecotourism in China and plan the passenger flow in different tourism periods. This work selects Zhangye Heihe wetland ecotourism spot as the research object. Firstly, the two single wetland ecotourism Demand Prediction Models (DPMs) are proposed based on the time series of the optimized Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm (FCA), grey theory, and the Markov Chain Method. The proposed wetland ecotourism DPM simulates and predicts the ecotourism passenger flow of wetland-scenic spots and verifies the maximum passenger flow. Then, a hybrid model combining the above two single models is proposed, namely, the wetland ecotourism DPM based on an optimized fuzzy grey clustering algorithm. Further, the proposed three models predict the passenger flow in wetland ecotourism spots from 2015 to 2019. A wetland Water Quality Evaluation (WQE) model based on Deep Learning Backpropagation Neural Network (Deep Learning (DL) BPNN) is proposed to evaluate the water quality in different water periods. The results show that the hybrid model's Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are 1.25% and 0.2532. By comparison, for two single models, the MAPE is 11.67% and 1.45%, respectively, and the RMSE is 0.2526 and 0.1652, respectively. Therefore, the mixed hybrid has the highest accuracy and stability. The water quality of the scenic spot in the wet season is obviously better than that in the dry season and flat season. It is suggested that the natural environmental factors, such as water quality and passenger flow in different periods, should be considered when formulating ecotourism development strategies.
目的是促进中国湿地生态旅游的可持续发展,并规划不同旅游时期的客流量。本工作选择张掖黑河湿地生态旅游景点作为研究对象。首先,基于优化模糊聚类算法(FCA)、灰色理论和马尔可夫链方法的时间序列,提出了两种基于湿地生态旅游需求预测模型(DPM)的单湿地生态旅游需求预测模型。所提出的湿地生态旅游 DPM 模拟和预测了湿地景点的生态旅游客流量,并验证了最大客流量。然后,提出了一种结合上述两种单模型的混合模型,即基于优化模糊灰色聚类算法的湿地生态旅游 DPM。进一步,利用所提出的三种模型预测了 2015 年至 2019 年湿地生态旅游景点的客流量。提出了一种基于深度学习反向传播神经网络(深度学习(DL)BPNN)的湿地水质评价(WQE)模型,用于评价不同时期的水质。结果表明,混合模型的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为 1.25%和 0.2532。相比之下,对于两个单模型,MAPE 分别为 11.67%和 1.45%,RMSE 分别为 0.2526 和 0.1652。因此,混合模型具有最高的准确性和稳定性。湿地旅游旺季的水质明显优于淡季和平季。建议在制定生态旅游发展战略时,应考虑不同时期的自然环境因素,如水质和客流量。