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存在干预策略时新冠病毒感染传播动力学的数学分析

Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection in the presence of intervention strategies.

作者信息

Teklu Shewafera Wondimagegnhu

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Natural Science, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia.

出版信息

J Biol Dyn. 2022 Dec;16(1):640-664. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2111469.

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has become a global public health issue, and it has been a cause for morbidity and mortality of more people throughout the world. In this paper, we investigated the impacts of vaccination, other protection measures, home quarantine with treatment, and hospital quarantine with treatment strategies simultaneously using a deterministic mathematical modelling approach. No one has considered these intervention strategies simultaneously in his/her modelling approach. We examined all the qualitative properties of the model such as the positivity and boundedness of the model solutions, the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, the effective reproduction number using next-generation matrix method, local stabilities of equilibrium points using the Routh-Hurwitz method. Using the Centre Manifold criteria, we have shown the existence of backward bifurcation whenever the COVID-19 effective reproduction number is less than unity. Moreover, we have analysed both sensitivity and numerical simulation using parameter values taken from published literature. The numerical results show that the transmission rate is the most sensitive parameter we have to control. Also vaccination, other protection measures, home quarantine with treatment, and hospital quarantine with treatment have great effects to minimize the COVID-19 transmission in the community.

摘要

新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)感染已成为一个全球公共卫生问题,并且它已成为全世界更多人发病和死亡的一个原因。在本文中,我们使用确定性数学建模方法同时研究了疫苗接种、其他防护措施、居家隔离治疗以及医院隔离治疗策略的影响。在其建模方法中,没有人同时考虑过这些干预策略。我们研究了模型的所有定性性质,例如模型解的正性和有界性、无病平衡点和地方病平衡点、使用下一代矩阵方法的有效再生数、使用劳斯 - 赫尔维茨方法的平衡点的局部稳定性。使用中心流形准则,我们表明只要COVID - 19有效再生数小于1,就存在向后分支。此外,我们使用从已发表文献中获取的参数值分析了敏感性和数值模拟。数值结果表明传播率是我们必须控制的最敏感参数。而且疫苗接种、其他防护措施、居家隔离治疗以及医院隔离治疗对于将社区中的COVID - 19传播降至最低有很大作用。

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