Truchelut Ryan E, Klotzbach Philip J, Staehling Erica M, Wood Kimberly M, Halperin Daniel J, Schreck Carl J, Blake Eric S
WeatherTiger, LLC, Tallahassee, FL, USA.
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Nat Commun. 2022 Aug 16;13(1):4646. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31821-3.
Numerous Atlantic basin tropical cyclones have recently developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, including several pre-season landfalls in the continental United States. Pre-season and early-season tropical cyclones disproportionately affect populated landmasses, often producing outsized precipitation impacts. Here we show a significant trend towards earlier onset of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin, with threshold dates of the first three percentiles of accumulated cyclone energy shifting earlier at a rate exceeding five days decade since 1979, even correcting for biases in climatology due to increased detection of short-lived storms. Initial threshold dates of continental United States named storm landfalls have trended earlier by two days decade since 1900. The trend towards additional pre-season and early-season activity is linked to spring thermodynamic conditions becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Genesis potential index value increases in the western Atlantic basin are primarily driven by warming ocean temperatures.
最近，在飓风季节正式开始之前，大西洋盆地出现了许多热带气旋，其中包括在美国大陆的几次季前登陆。季前和季初的热带气旋对人口密集的陆地造成了不成比例的影响，往往会产生巨大的降水影响。在这里，我们展示了北大西洋盆地热带气旋活动开始时间显著提前的趋势，自1979年以来，累积气旋能量前三个百分位数的阈值日期以超过每十年五天的速度提前，即使校正了由于对短寿命风暴探测增加而导致的气候学偏差。自1900年以来，美国大陆命名风暴登陆的初始阈值日期每十年提前两天。季前和季初活动增加的趋势与春季热力学条件变得更有利于热带气旋形成有关。西大西洋盆地生成潜力指数值的增加主要是由海洋温度上升驱动的。
