Am Nat. 2022 Sep;200(3):330-344. doi: 10.1086/720403. Epub 2022 Jul 8.
AbstractInfectious diseases can impact human welfare and impede wildlife management. Much recent research explores whether biodiversity increases or decreases infectious disease risk. Here, we theoretically study the relationship between vector species richness and the risk of vector-borne diseases using an epidemiological model of a single host and multiple vectors. The model considers that vectors are involved in interspecific feeding interference that causes transmission interference and in interspecific recruitment competition that mediates susceptible vector regulation. The model reveals three possible shapes of the vector richness-disease risk relationship: monotonic amplification, hump-shaped, and monotonic dilution patterns. The monotonic amplification pattern occurs across a wide parameter region. The hump-shaped and monotonic dilution patterns are found when transmission interference is strong and recruitment competition is weak. Unexpectedly, susceptible vector regulation not only promotes dilution but can strengthen amplification if coupled with strong transmission interference. Our results suggest that vector richness might be more likely to cause amplification rather than dilution, and shifts in the community mean trait values of vectors could also affect disease risk along the vector richness gradient.
传染病会影响人类福利并阻碍野生动物管理。最近的许多研究都在探讨生物多样性是增加还是降低了传染病的风险。在这里,我们使用一种单宿主和多种媒介的传染病模型,从理论上研究了媒介物种丰富度与媒介传播疾病风险之间的关系。该模型考虑到了媒介之间的种间取食干扰,这种干扰会导致传播干扰,以及媒介之间的种间招募竞争,这会影响易感媒介的调节。该模型揭示了媒介丰富度与疾病风险之间的三种可能的关系形状:单调放大、驼峰形和单调稀释模式。单调放大模式在广泛的参数区域内发生。当传播干扰强烈而招募竞争较弱时,会出现驼峰形和单调稀释模式。出乎意料的是,如果与强烈的传播干扰相结合,易感媒介的调节不仅可以促进稀释,还可以加强放大。我们的研究结果表明,媒介丰富度更有可能导致放大而不是稀释,并且媒介的群落平均特征值的变化也可能沿媒介丰富度梯度影响疾病风险。