The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, The Faculty of Medicine, Microbiology and Molecular Genetics Department, Jerusalem, Israel ; Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Biostatistics Unit, Ramat Gan, Israel.
PLoS One. 2013 Nov 26;8(11):e80279. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080279. eCollection 2013.
Multihost vector-borne infectious diseases form a significant fraction of the global infectious disease burden. In this study we explore the relationship between host diversity, vector behavior, and disease risk. To this end, we have developed a new dynamic model which includes two distinct host species and one vector species with variable preferences. With the aid of the model we were able to compute the basic reproductive rate, R 0, a well-established measure of disease risk that serves as a threshold parameter for disease outbreak. The model analysis reveals that the system has two different qualitative behaviors: (i) the well-known dilution effect, where the maximal R0 is obtained in a community which consists a single host (ii) a new amplification effect, denoted by us as diversity amplification, where the maximal R0 is attained in a community which consists both hosts. The model analysis extends on previous results by underlining the mechanism of both, diversity amplification and the dilution, and specifies the exact conditions for their occurrence. We have found that diversity amplification occurs where the vector prefers the host with the highest transmission ability, and dilution is obtained when the vector does not show any preference, or it prefers to bite the host with the lower transmission ability. The mechanisms of dilution and diversity amplification are able to account for the different and contradictory patterns often observed in nature (i.e., in some cases disease risk is increased while in other is decreased when the diversity is increased). Implication of the diversity amplification mechanism also challenges current premises about the interaction between biodiversity, climate change, and disease risk and calls for retrospective thinking in planning intervention policies aimed at protecting the preferred host species.
多宿主媒介传播传染病构成了全球传染病负担的重要组成部分。在这项研究中,我们探讨了宿主多样性、媒介行为和疾病风险之间的关系。为此,我们开发了一种新的动态模型,其中包括两个不同的宿主物种和一个具有可变偏好的媒介物种。借助该模型,我们能够计算基本繁殖率 R0,这是一种衡量疾病风险的既定指标,可用作疾病爆发的阈值参数。模型分析表明,该系统具有两种不同的定性行为:(i)众所周知的稀释效应,即最大 R0 出现在由单一宿主组成的社区中;(ii)一种新的放大效应,我们称之为多样性放大,即最大 R0 出现在由两种宿主组成的社区中。模型分析扩展了先前的结果,强调了多样性放大和稀释的机制,并具体说明了它们发生的精确条件。我们发现,多样性放大发生在媒介偏好具有最高传播能力的宿主时,而稀释则发生在媒介没有表现出任何偏好,或者偏好叮咬具有较低传播能力的宿主时。稀释和多样性放大的机制能够解释自然界中经常观察到的不同和矛盾的模式(即,在某些情况下,当多样性增加时,疾病风险会增加,而在其他情况下则会降低)。多样性放大机制的影响也对关于生物多样性、气候变化和疾病风险之间相互作用的当前前提提出了挑战,并呼吁在规划旨在保护首选宿主物种的干预政策时进行回顾性思考。
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