Department of Research and Technology Centers, R &D and Technology Directorate, Turkish Aerospace, 06980, Ankara, Turkey.
Eur Phys J E Soft Matter. 2022 Aug 17;45(8):68. doi: 10.1140/epje/s10189-022-00225-y.
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a major threat to the worldwide health care. In this context, epidemic modelling is an integral part of containment strategies. Compartmental models are typically used for this purpose. Analytical solutions of the two distinct but connected Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) and Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantine-Recovered (SIQR) models are presented in this study. Furthermore, the behaviour at the start of a disease outbreak is derived. This analysis shows that a combination of transmission, recovery and isolation rates dominates the behaviour at the start of an epidemic. In addition, the loss occurring due to quarantine and lockdown measures is investigated, where it can be observed that quarantine procedures lead to a smaller loss in comparison with lockdown regulations. Within this framework, optimized strategies that lead to a constant epidemic peak or a minimized loss are presented.
正在持续的 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行对全球卫生保健构成了重大威胁。在这种情况下，传染病模型是遏制策略的一个组成部分。为此通常使用房室模型。本研究提出了两种截然不同但相互关联的易感-感染-恢复-死亡（SIRD）和易感-感染-检疫-恢复（SIQR）模型的解析解。此外，还推导出了疾病爆发初期的行为。该分析表明，在疾病爆发初期，传播、恢复和隔离率的组合主导了行为。此外，还研究了由于检疫和封锁措施而导致的损失，结果表明，与封锁规定相比，检疫程序导致的损失较小。在此框架内，提出了导致恒定流行高峰或最小化损失的优化策略。
