Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
IGEPP, INRAE, Institut Agro, Univ Rennes, Rennes, France.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Aug 22;18(8):e1010309. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010309. eCollection 2022 Aug.
While the spread of plant disease depends strongly on biological factors driving transmission, it also has a human dimension. Disease control depends on decisions made by individual growers, who are in turn influenced by a broad range of factors. Despite this, human behaviour has rarely been included in plant epidemic models. Considering Cassava Brown Streak Disease, we model how the perceived increase in profit due to disease management influences participation in clean seed systems (CSS). Our models are rooted in game theory, with growers making strategic decisions based on the expected profitability of different control strategies. We find that both the information used by growers to assess profitability and the perception of economic and epidemiological parameters influence long-term participation in the CSS. Over-estimation of infection risk leads to lower participation in the CSS, as growers perceive that paying for the CSS will be futile. Additionally, even though good disease management can be achieved through the implementation of CSS, and a scenario where all controllers use the CSS is achievable when growers base their decision on the average of their entire strategy, CBSD is rarely eliminated from the system. These results are robust to stochastic and spatial effects. Our work highlights the importance of including human behaviour in plant disease models, but also the significance of how that behaviour is included.
虽然植物病害的传播很大程度上取决于驱动传播的生物因素,但它也有人为因素。疾病控制取决于个体种植者做出的决策,而这些决策又受到广泛因素的影响。尽管如此,人为行为在植物流行模型中很少被考虑。以木薯褐条病为例,我们构建了一个模型,用以研究由于疾病管理而导致的利润感知增加如何影响清洁种子系统(CSS)的参与度。我们的模型基于博弈论,种植者根据不同控制策略的预期盈利能力做出战略决策。我们发现,种植者用来评估盈利能力的信息以及对经济和流行病学参数的感知都会影响其长期参与 CSS 的意愿。对感染风险的过高估计会导致 CSS 的参与度降低,因为种植者认为支付 CSS 的费用将是徒劳的。此外,尽管 CSS 的实施可以实现良好的疾病管理,并且当种植者基于整个策略的平均值做出决策时,所有的管理者都可以使用 CSS 的情景是可以实现的,但 CSSD 很少从系统中消除。这些结果对随机和空间效应具有稳健性。我们的工作强调了在植物疾病模型中纳入人为行为的重要性,但也强调了如何纳入人为行为的重要性。