Cascante-Vega Jaime, Torres-Florez Samuel, Cordovez Juan, Santos-Vega Mauricio
Departamento de Ingeniería Biomédica, Grupo de Investigación en Biología Matemática y Computacional, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá D.C., Colombia.
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2022 Jan 12;9(1):210803. doi: 10.1098/rsos.210803. eCollection 2022 Jan.
Epidemiological models often assume that individuals do not change their behaviour or that those aspects are implicitly incorporated in parameters in the models. Typically, these assumptions are included in the contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals. However, adaptive behaviours are expected to emerge and play an important role in the transmission dynamics across populations. Here, we propose a theoretical framework to couple transmission dynamics with behavioural dynamics due to infection awareness. We modelled the dynamics of social behaviour using a game theory framework, which is then coupled with an epidemiological model that captures the disease dynamics by assuming that individuals are aware of the actual epidemiological state to reduce their contacts. Results from the mechanistic model show that as individuals increase their awareness, the steady-state value of the final fraction of infected individuals in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model decreases. We also incorporate theoretical contact networks, having the awareness parameter dependent on global or local contacts. Results show that even when individuals increase their awareness of the disease, the spatial structure itself defines the steady state.
流行病学模型通常假定个体不会改变其行为,或者这些方面被隐含地纳入模型参数中。通常,这些假设包含在感染者与易感者之间的接触率中。然而,适应性行为预计会出现,并在人群间的传播动态中发挥重要作用。在此,我们提出一个理论框架,将传播动态与因感染意识而产生的行为动态联系起来。我们使用博弈论框架对社会行为动态进行建模,然后将其与一个流行病学模型相结合,该模型通过假设个体了解实际的流行病学状态以减少接触来捕捉疾病动态。机理模型的结果表明,随着个体意识的增强,易感-感染-易感(SIS)模型中最终感染个体比例的稳态值会降低。我们还纳入了理论接触网络,使意识参数取决于全局或局部接触。结果表明,即使个体提高了对疾病的认识,空间结构本身也决定了稳态。