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所有SCARES新冠疫情情绪与资产回报的总和。

The sum of all SCARES COVID-19 sentiment and asset return.

作者信息

Hasan Md Tanvir

机构信息

Department of Finance, University of Dhaka, Nilkhet Road, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Q Rev Econ Finance. 2022 Nov;86:332-346. doi: 10.1016/j.qref.2022.08.005. Epub 2022 Aug 18.

Abstract

In this study, I constitute a search based COVID-19 sentiment index using Google search volume. I develop an alternative Scared COVID-19 Attitude Revealed by Eager Search (SCARES) index using the household search volume i.e. "coronavirus pandemic", "coronavirus epidemic", and "coronavirus outbreak" of United States (US) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily data from May 1, 2020 to July 30, 2021, I find that SCARES index negatively explains stock market return and subsequent return reversals, implying that households' increased pandemic sentiment negatively affects equity market return. Furthermore, decile regressions on characteristics-sorted portfolio returns show that SCARES index predicts the return reversals of firms that are small, less profitable, and with low investment. I also report that COVID-19 search shocks of households do not significantly predict any of the Fama-French five-factors except SMB (small-minus-big). Moreover, I use two state Markov switching model and find that structural breaks associated with pandemic phases make SCARES positively related to indices i.e. twitter based uncertainty, volatility index, economic policy uncertainty, and business condition in high volatility regime. Finally, sub-period analysis reports that, in stock market context, people start to react slowly and become relatively less responsive to the COVID-19 search keywords. The findings of this paper can assist key stakeholders in the market to carefully analyze the asset return pattern during pandemic regimes.

摘要

在本研究中,我使用谷歌搜索量构建了一个基于搜索的新冠疫情情绪指数。我利用家庭搜索量,即美国在新冠疫情期间的“冠状病毒大流行”“冠状病毒疫情”和“冠状病毒爆发”,开发了一个替代的“急切搜索揭示的恐惧新冠态度”(SCARES)指数。利用2020年5月1日至2021年7月30日的每日数据,我发现SCARES指数对股票市场回报和随后的回报反转具有负向解释力,这意味着家庭增强的疫情情绪对股票市场回报产生负面影响。此外,对按特征分类的投资组合回报进行的十分位数回归表明,SCARES指数预测了规模小、盈利能力差和投资低的公司的回报反转。我还报告称,家庭的新冠疫情搜索冲击除了对SMB(小减大)外,并未显著预测任何法玛-弗伦奇五因素。此外,我使用两状态马尔可夫切换模型,发现与疫情阶段相关的结构断点使得SCARES在高波动状态下与基于推特的不确定性、波动率指数、经济政策不确定性和商业状况等指数呈正相关。最后,子时期分析报告称,在股票市场背景下,人们开始反应缓慢,对新冠疫情搜索关键词的反应相对减弱。本文的研究结果可帮助市场中的关键利益相关者仔细分析疫情期间的资产回报模式。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/606b/9387107/87bc9e6a43c4/gr1_lrg.jpg

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