使用逻辑回归模型对南非结核病传播相关风险因素的调查。
An Investigation of Risk Factors Associated with Tuberculosis Transmission in South Africa Using Logistic Regression Model.
作者信息
Maja Tshepo Frans, Maposa Daniel
机构信息
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Limpopo, Private Bag X1106, Sovenga, Polokwane 0727, South Africa.
出版信息
Infect Dis Rep. 2022 Aug 18;14(4):609-620. doi: 10.3390/idr14040066.
South Africa has a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) disease and is currently not meeting the national and international reduction outcome targets. The TB prevalence rate of South Africa in 2015 was estimated at approximately 690 per 100,000 population per year, with an incidence rate of about 834 per 100,000 population. This study examines risk factors associated with development of TB in South Africa. This study utilised readily available open access secondary data of 2019 South African Health and Demographic Survey from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) website, which was collected from self-reported information relating to TB in the household questionnaire. The factors analysed were of demographic, socio-economic and health nature. Bivariate and binary logistics analyses were carried out from which appropriate inferences were drawn on the association of TB with demographic, socio-economic and health factors. In multivariate analysis the study revealed that age, personal weight, smoke, alcohol, asthma, province of residence, race and usually coughing were significantly associated with an increased risk of having TB. The results strongly suggest that young and older people coming from black and coloured ethic groups, who are asthmatic and cough frequently, and/or smoking and consuming alcohol are at high risk of developing TB. In addition, those who are overweight appear to have an increased risk of TB transmission, with the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Free State, North West and Gauteng being the hardest hit provinces. Hence, the study recommends that these factors must be taken into account in the planning and development of TB policies in order to work successfully towards the achievement of sustainable development goal of reducing TB by 80% before 2030.
南非结核病负担沉重,目前未达到国家和国际结核病减少目标。2015年南非结核病患病率估计约为每10万人口每年690例,发病率约为每10万人口834例。本研究调查了与南非结核病发病相关的危险因素。本研究利用了从南非统计局(StatsSA)网站获取的2019年南非健康与人口调查现成的公开二级数据,这些数据来自家庭问卷中与结核病相关的自我报告信息。分析的因素包括人口统计学、社会经济和健康方面的因素。进行了双变量和二元逻辑分析,并据此对结核病与人口统计学、社会经济和健康因素之间的关联得出了适当推论。在多变量分析中,研究表明年龄、个人体重、吸烟、饮酒、哮喘、居住省份、种族和经常咳嗽与患结核病风险增加显著相关。结果强烈表明,来自黑人和有色人种群体、患有哮喘且经常咳嗽、和/或吸烟及饮酒的年轻人和老年人患结核病的风险很高。此外,超重者似乎结核病传播风险增加,西开普省、东开普省、北开普省、自由邦省、西北省和豪登省是受影响最严重的省份。因此,该研究建议在结核病政策的规划和制定中必须考虑这些因素,以便成功朝着在2030年前将结核病减少80%这一可持续发展目标努力。