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平衡国家经济政策成果以实现可持续发展。

Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development.

机构信息

Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.

Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2022 Aug 26;13(1):5041. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9.

Abstract

The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.

摘要

2030 年可持续发展目标(SDGs)旨在共同改善经济、社会和环境成果,促进人类繁荣和地球健康。然而,设计支持多个可持续发展目标发展的国家经济政策受到多部门经济的复杂性和经常相互冲突的政策的阻碍。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了一个国家规模的设计框架,使政策制定者能够在复杂的、非线性的、多部门政策空间中筛选出平衡经济、社会和环境目标的高效政策组合。该框架结合了全经济可持续性模拟和人工智能驱动的多目标、多可持续发展目标政策搜索和机器学习。该框架可以支持多部门、多行为体的政策审议,以筛选高效的政策组合。我们通过识别实现贫困和不平等减少、经济增长和气候变化缓解的有效组合的政策组合,为埃及的案例研究展示了该框架的实用性。结果表明,综合政策战略有助于在平衡改革的不利经济、社会和政治影响的同时实现可持续发展。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7888/9418168/94914014c145/41467_2022_32415_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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