Ashraf Adil, Basheer Mohammed, Gonzalez Jose M, Martínez Ceseña Eduardo A, Etichia Mikiyas, Obuobie Emmanuel, Bottacin-Busolin Andrea, Adamowski Jan, Panteli Mathaios, Harou Julien J
Department of Civil Engineering and Management, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jun 19;16(1):5320. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59738-7.
Many countries worldwide are transitioning from fossil fuel-dependent economies to carbon neutrality, driven by the 2030 agenda for sustainable development and the Paris Agreement. However, without considering the regional distribution of essential services like water and energy, this transition could inadvertently maintain or increase inequities, threatening sustainable development. Here, we argue that spatial equity of benefits should be considered in planning low-carbon energy transitions, especially in developing countries with multisector interdependencies and high service disparities between regions. We propose an analytical framework that can help analysts and policymakers plan for regionally equitable climate-compatible futures. The multisector design framework combines integrated river basin-power system simulation with artificial intelligence design tools. The utility of the framework is demonstrated for Ghana by identifying the most efficient infrastructure intervention portfolios and their implied trade-offs between spatial equity in water and energy service provision, carbon emissions, food production, and river ecosystem performance. Case-study results show that an equitable low-carbon energy transition will require increased investments in renewable energy and transmission alongside more informed infrastructure system planning. With low renewable investments, equity can be improved, but at the cost of higher emissions and electricity supply curtailments.
在《2030年可持续发展议程》和《巴黎协定》的推动下,全球许多国家正在从依赖化石燃料的经济向碳中和转型。然而,如果不考虑水和能源等基本服务的区域分布情况,这种转型可能会无意中维持或加剧不平等现象,威胁可持续发展。在此,我们认为在规划低碳能源转型时应考虑效益的空间公平性,特别是在那些各部门相互依存且区域间服务差距较大的发展中国家。我们提出了一个分析框架,可帮助分析人员和政策制定者规划区域公平的气候兼容型未来。这个多部门设计框架将流域 - 电力系统综合模拟与人工智能设计工具相结合。通过确定最有效的基础设施干预组合及其在水和能源服务供应的空间公平性、碳排放、粮食生产以及河流生态系统性能之间的隐含权衡,该框架在加纳得到了验证。案例研究结果表明,公平的低碳能源转型需要增加对可再生能源和输电的投资,同时进行更明智的基础设施系统规划。如果可再生能源投资较低,可以改善公平性,但代价是更高的排放量和电力供应削减。