EpidStrategies, a division of ToxStrategies, Inc., 1249 Kildaire Farm Road #134, Cary, NC, 27511, USA.
MetaMethod, 13570 Summit Circle, Poway, CA, 92064, USA.
BMC Public Health. 2022 Aug 27;22(1):1625. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-14042-7.
Identification of modifiable risk factors that may impact chronic disease risk is critical to public health. Our study objective was to conduct a theoretical population attributable risk analysis to estimate the burden of disease from low dairy intake and to estimate the impact of increased dairy intake on United States (US)-based disability adjusted life years (DALYs).
We conducted a comprehensive literature review to identify statistically significant summary relative risk estimates (SRREs) from recent meta-analyses of dairy consumption and key chronic disease outcomes. The SRREs were applied to preventive fractions using a range of categories (low to high) for population consumption of dairy products. The preventive fraction estimates were then applied to the number of DALYs for each health outcome in the US based on 2019 WHO estimates. The population attributable risk proportion estimates were calculated using the inverse of the SRRE from each meta-analysis using the same range of categories of consumption. These values were subsequently applied to the DALYs estimates to estimate the theoretical burden of disease attributable to low dairy intake.
Statistically significant SRREs were identified in recent meta-analyses of total dairy consumption in relation to breast cancer, colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), stroke, and hypertension. In this theoretical analysis, nearly 850,000 DALYs (or 5.0% of estimated years of healthy life lost) due to CVD and 200,000 DALYs (4.5%) due to T2D may be prevented by increased dairy consumption. Approximately 100,000 DALYs due to breast cancer (7.5%) and approximately 120,000 DALYs (8.5%) due to colorectal cancer may be prevented by high dairy intake. The numbers of DALYs for stroke and hypertension that may be prevented by increased dairy consumption were approximately 210,000 (6.0%) and 74,000 (5.5%), respectively.
Consumption of dairy products has been associated with decreased risk of multiple chronic diseases of significant public health importance. The burden of disease that may potentially be prevented by increasing dairy consumption is substantial, and population-wide improvement in meeting recommended daily dairy intake goals could have a notable public health impact. However, this analysis is theoretical, and thus additional studies providing empirical evidence are needed to further clarify potential relationships between dairy intake and various health outcomes.
识别可能影响慢性病风险的可改变风险因素对公共卫生至关重要。我们的研究目的是进行理论人群归因风险分析，以估计低乳制品摄入量的疾病负担，并估计增加乳制品摄入量对美国（美国）基于残疾调整生命年（DALY）的影响。
我们进行了全面的文献综述，以确定最近对乳制品消费与主要慢性病结局进行的荟萃分析中具有统计学意义的汇总相对风险估计（SRRE）。将 SRRE 应用于预防性分数，使用乳制品产品人群消费的一系列类别（低到高）。然后，根据 2019 年世卫组织的估计，将预防性分数估计值应用于美国每种健康结果的 DALY 数。使用相同的消费类别范围，从每项荟萃分析中的 SRRE 计算人群归因风险比例估计值。随后将这些值应用于 DALY 估计值，以估计由于低乳制品摄入量而导致的理论疾病负担。
在最近对总乳制品消费与乳腺癌、结直肠癌、心血管疾病（CVD）、2 型糖尿病（T2D）、中风和高血压关系的荟萃分析中，确定了具有统计学意义的 SRRE。在这项理论分析中，由于 CVD 增加乳制品消费可能预防近 850,000 个 DALY（或估计失去健康寿命的 5.0%），由于 T2D 增加乳制品消费可能预防 200,000 个 DALY（4.5%）。高乳制品摄入可能预防大约 100,000 个 DALY（7.5%）的乳腺癌和大约 120,000 个 DALY（8.5%）的结直肠癌。通过增加乳制品消费可能预防的中风和高血压的 DALY 数量分别约为 210,000（6.0%）和 74,000（5.5%）。
乳制品消费与多种具有重要公共卫生意义的慢性疾病风险降低有关。通过增加乳制品消费可能预防的疾病负担是相当大的，并且在满足推荐的每日乳制品摄入量目标方面改善人群范围可能会对公共卫生产生显著影响。然而，这一分析是理论性的，因此需要提供实证证据的进一步研究来进一步澄清乳制品摄入量与各种健康结果之间的潜在关系。
