Simionescu Mihaela, Cifuentes-Faura Javier
Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania.
University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain.
Soc Indic Res. 2022;164(3):1187-1216. doi: 10.1007/s11205-022-02984-9. Epub 2022 Aug 19.
In Spain, the youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the European Union. With the pandemic caused by Covid-19, young people face high unemployment rates and are more vulnerable to a decrease in labour demand. This paper analyses and predicts youth unemployment using Google Trends indices in Spain for the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the second quarter of 2021, being the first work to carry out this study for Spain and the first to use the regional approach for the country. Vector autoregressive Bayesian models and vector error correction models have been used for national data, and Bayesian panel data models and fixed effects model for regional data. The results confirm that forecasts based on Google Trends data are more accurate in predicting the youth unemployment rate.
在西班牙，青年失业率是欧盟中最高的之一。随着新冠疫情的爆发，年轻人面临着高失业率，并且更容易受到劳动力需求下降的影响。本文利用2004年第一季度至2021年第二季度西班牙的谷歌趋势指数，对青年失业率进行分析和预测，这是首次针对西班牙开展此项研究，也是首次采用该国的区域方法。针对全国数据使用了向量自回归贝叶斯模型和向量误差修正模型，针对区域数据使用了贝叶斯面板数据模型和固定效应模型。结果证实，基于谷歌趋势数据的预测在预测青年失业率方面更为准确。
