Day Garth, Day Creina
Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Clim Change. 2022;173(3-4):27. doi: 10.1007/s10584-022-03389-w. Epub 2022 Aug 22.
Fossil fuel producers develop too many reserves for combustion due to subsidies for upfront development costs. The conventional wisdom is that downward-sloping tax profiles avoid green paradox outcomes by reducing present extraction. This paper shows that accounting for subsidized reserves development can induce green paradox outcomes for downward-sloping income tax profiles. A theoretical model linking reserves development and extraction with climate change damages is developed to explore conditions for the weak and strong green paradox outcomes of higher present extraction and cumulative damages. We find that the weak green paradox arises under higher and flatter income tax profiles. The strong green paradox is an ambiguous outcome without subsidized reserves development. Quantitative examples demonstrate the effect of downward-sloping tax profiles on crude oil extraction and how the strong green paradox arises when delayed emissions are less relevant for damages.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03389-w.
由于前期开发成本补贴，化石燃料生产商开发了过多用于燃烧的储备。传统观点认为，向下倾斜的税收曲线通过减少当前开采量来避免绿色悖论结果。本文表明，考虑补贴储备开发可能会导致向下倾斜的所得税曲线产生绿色悖论结果。建立了一个将储备开发和开采与气候变化损害联系起来的理论模型，以探索当前开采量增加和累积损害的弱绿色悖论和强绿色悖论结果的条件。我们发现，在更高且更平缓的所得税曲线上会出现弱绿色悖论。在没有补贴储备开发的情况下，强绿色悖论是一个不明确的结果。定量示例展示了向下倾斜的税收曲线对原油开采的影响，以及当延迟排放对损害的相关性较低时强绿色悖论是如何产生的。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10584-022-03389-w获取的补充材料。
