Adekunle Ibrahim Ayoade, Oseni Isiaq Olasunkanmi
Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria.
European Xtramile Centre of African Studies, Liège, Belgium.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 May;28(18):22729-22741. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12384-0. Epub 2021 Jan 10.
It is expected that fuel subsidy removal should hinder carbon emissions growth through low energy consumption channels amid higher energy prices. However, outliers in this theoretical disposition make empirical proof of the fuel subsidy-carbon intensity apt and primitive. Despite established fuel subsidy abolishment gains for climate and economic welfare, the relevance, magnitude and policy implications remain dimly. This paper employs the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation procedure to gauge the contemporaneous influence of fuel subsidy for carbon intensity in Nigeria. Findings revealed that fuel subsidy removal inversely relates to Nigeria's carbon emission in the short run and long run. The study recommends a complementary policy option that ensures additional financial savings to the government should be invested in public sector growth that can cushion the effect of relative income loss to the citizenry. The Nigerian government should ensure measures are kept in place to discourage overconsumption of alternative energy (for example coal) that could also threaten the green economy paradox.
预计取消燃油补贴应通过在能源价格上涨的情况下降低能源消耗渠道来阻碍碳排放增长。然而,这一理论倾向中的异常值使得对燃油补贴与碳强度关系的实证证明变得恰当且原始。尽管取消燃油补贴已在气候和经济福利方面取得了既定成果,但其相关性、程度和政策影响仍不明确。本文采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)估计程序来衡量燃油补贴对尼日利亚碳强度的同期影响。研究结果表明,取消燃油补贴在短期和长期内都与尼日利亚的碳排放呈负相关。该研究建议采取一种补充性政策选择,即确保政府额外的财政储蓄应投资于公共部门增长,以缓解公民相对收入损失的影响。尼日利亚政府应确保采取措施抑制对替代能源(如煤炭)的过度消费,因为这也可能威胁绿色经济的发展。