Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability (GSAIS), Kyoto University, Kyoto, 606-8306, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2022 Aug 29;12(1):14692. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-18935-w.
The sustainability of wave energy linked to the intra- and inter-annual variability in wave climate is crucial in wave resource assessment. In this study, we quantify the dependency of stability of wave energy flux (power) on long-term variability of wind and wave climate to detect a relationship between them. We used six decades of re-analysis wind and simulated wave climate in the entire globe and using two 30-yearly periods, we showed that not only the previously suggested minimum period of 10 years for wave energy assessment appears to be insufficient for detecting the influence of climate variability, but also the selection period for wave energy assessment can lead to an over/underestimation of about 25% for wave power. In addition, we quantified the dependency of rates of change of wave power, wind speed and wave parameters and showed that the change in wave power is mainly a function of change in swell wave climate globally. Finally, we redefined the suitability of global hotspots for wave energy extraction using intra-annual fluctuation, long-term change, and the available wave power for the period of six decades. The results highlight the importance of climate variability in resource assessment, sustainability, and prioritizing the hotspots for future development.
波浪能的可持续性与波浪气候的年内和年际可变性密切相关，这在波浪资源评估中至关重要。在本研究中，我们量化了波浪能通量（功率）稳定性对风况和波浪气候长期变化的依赖性，以检测它们之间的关系。我们使用了全球六十年的再分析风和模拟波浪气候，并使用两个三十年时段，结果表明，不仅先前建议的波浪能评估最小周期 10 年似乎不足以检测气候可变性的影响，而且波浪能评估的选择时期也可能导致波浪功率的高估/低估约 25%。此外，我们量化了波浪功率、风速和波浪参数变化率的依赖性，并表明波浪功率的变化主要是全球涌浪气候变化的函数。最后，我们使用一年内的波动、长期变化以及六十年期间可用的波浪能，重新定义了全球热点地区用于波浪能提取的适宜性。结果突出了气候可变性在资源评估、可持续性和确定未来发展热点方面的重要性。
