Ibarra-Berastegui Gabriel, Sáenz Jon, Ulazia Alain, Sáenz-Aguirre Aitor, Esnaola Ganix
Energy Engineering Department, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Plaza Ingeniero Torres Quevedo, 1, 48013, Bilbao, Spain.
Plentziako Itsas Estazioa, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Areatza Hiribidea, 47, 48620, Plentzia, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2023 Oct 23;13(1):18046. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-45450-3.
Three-hourly CMIP6 projections have been used in conjuction with the CSIRO WaveWatchIII wave model to calculate the global trends in offshore wind and wave energy for the SSP585 and SSP126 scenarios until 2100. The results indicate that moderate yet significant changes are expected in the theoretical electricity generated from wind and waves at fewer than 10-15% of coastal locations. While this implies a generally stable outlook for the future, certain coastal regions with existing or planned wind farms may experience a slight reduction in production by 2100. Regarding wave energy, given its early stage of development, a more cautious approach is advisable, although a similar conclusion may be reached. Considering the decreasing installation costs on the horizon and accounting for both climatic scenarios, this provides a reliable context for most ongoing feasibility studies, technological developments, and offshore facility investments.
结合CSIRO WaveWatchIII波浪模型，使用每三小时一次的CMIP6预测数据，计算了SSP585和SSP126情景下到2100年全球近海风能和波浪能的趋势。结果表明，预计在不到10%-15%的沿海地区，风浪理论发电量将发生适度但显著的变化。虽然这意味着未来总体前景稳定，但到2100年，某些现有或规划中的风电场所在的沿海地区发电量可能会略有下降。关于波浪能，鉴于其仍处于发展初期，尽管可能得出类似结论，但建议采取更为谨慎的方法。考虑到未来安装成本的降低以及两种气候情景，这为大多数正在进行的可行性研究、技术开发和海上设施投资提供了可靠的背景。
