Diagnosis and potential invasion risk of under current and future climate change scenarios.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Invasive thrips, Karny recently reported in India, causing a widespread severe infestation in more than 0.4 million ha of chilli ( L.) growing areas. This species is native to Thailand and most prevalent in other South East Asian countries. Large scale cultivation of the major host plants (chilli and papaya), and favourable climatic conditions in India and other countries similar to native range of expected to favour its further spread and establishment to new areas.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The present study was undertaken to confirm invasive thrips species identity through both morphological and molecular approaches and predict its potential invasion using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm.

RESULTS

The model predicted species range in respect of discrimination of suitable and unsuitable areas for its occurrence both in current and future climatic scenarios. The model provided a good fit for species distribution with a high value of area under the curve (0.957). The jackknife test indicated annual mean temperature and precipitation were found to be the most important bioclimatic variable in determining the distribution of . High suitability areas were predicted in the countries wherever its occurrence was reported with high discrimination ability of suitable and unsuitable areas. Key distinguishing morphological characters of were illustrated through high-resolution scanning electron microscopic images.

CONCLUSION

The identity of the thrips causing wide spread damage in chilli confirmed through morphological and molecular approaches. Key identifying characters were described through high resolution scanning electron microscopic images for accurate identification of the species. MaxEnt model identified high suitability regions for the potential establishment of in India and other parts of the world. This study facilitates forecasting of further spread and also suggests imposing strict domestic quarantine measures to curtail its establishment in the new areas.