College of Economics and Management, Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi 4350003, China.
School of Media and Law, NingboTech University, Ningbo 315000, China.
J Environ Public Health. 2022 Aug 22;2022:8173768. doi: 10.1155/2022/8173768. eCollection 2022.
This paper aimed to study how to analyze and study economic and social development under the new crown epidemic based on the neural network and described the BP neural network. Economic forecasts are affected by multiple influencing factors, the relationships between these factors are complex, and it is a nonlinear system with a high degree of uncertainty. The use of traditional forecasting methods has many limitations, and neural network methods can overcome these limitations and achieve good nonlinear forecasting. . Through the analysis and statistics of the impact of the SARS epidemic and the new crown epidemic on the economy, by 2021, the economic contribution of final consumption expenditure, total capital formation, and net exports will be 65.4%, 13.7%, and 20.9%, respectively, and the impact of the current new crown virus epidemic on the economy will be greater than that of the SARS epidemic in 2003. . The model applied to economic forecasting based on the BP network can achieve good forecasting effect, and scientific and reasonable forecasting methods depend on the in-depth understanding of economic activities and dominance of familiarity with economic theory. . Through the analysis of the economy in the context of political will and the new crown epidemic, it will give more reference to more and more complex emergencies in the future.
本文旨在研究如何基于神经网络分析和研究新冠疫情下的经济社会发展，并对 BP 神经网络进行了描述。经济预测受到多种影响因素的影响，这些因素之间的关系复杂，是一个具有高度不确定性的非线性系统。传统的预测方法存在许多局限性，而神经网络方法可以克服这些局限性，实现良好的非线性预测。通过对 SARS 疫情和新冠疫情对经济的影响进行分析和统计，到 2021 年，最终消费支出、总资本形成和净出口对经济的贡献将分别达到 65.4%、13.7%和 20.9%，当前新冠病毒疫情对经济的影响将大于 2003 年的 SARS 疫情。基于 BP 网络的经济预测模型可以达到良好的预测效果，科学合理的预测方法取决于对经济活动的深入了解和对经济理论的掌握。通过对政治意愿和新冠疫情背景下的经济进行分析，将为未来越来越复杂的突发事件提供更多参考。
