Pandey Alok Kumar, Singh Pawan Kumar, Nawaz Muhammad, Kushwaha Amrendra Kumar
Centre for the Integrated and Rural Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221005, India.
School of Business, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies (UPES), Dehradun, Uttarakhand, 248007, India.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(3):8188-8206. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22739-w. Epub 2022 Sep 2.
Renewable energy delivers reliable power supplies and fuel diversification, enhancing energy security and lowering fuel spill risk. Renewable energy also helps conserve the nation's natural resources. Solar and other renewable energy sources have become increasingly prominent in recent years. India has achieved the 20 GW capacity solar energy production target before 2022. It is presently producing the lowest-cost solar power at the global level. Thermal energy has dominated the energy market. Countries have decided on energy generation from renewable sources and adopting green energy. This study forecasted non-renewable and renewable energy from multiple sources (hydropower, solar, wind and bioenergy) using grey forecasting model DGM (1,1,α). The comparative analyses with the classical models DGM (1,1) and EGM (1,1) revealed the superiority of the DGM (1,1,α). We also used CAGR for 2009-2019 to compare the actual and predicted data growth rate. The results show that non-renewable and renewable energy production is expected to increase. However, renewable energy generation wind sources continue to increase faster than hydropower, solar and bioenergy.
可再生能源提供可靠的电力供应并实现燃料多样化，增强了能源安全并降低了燃料泄漏风险。可再生能源还有助于保护国家的自然资源。太阳能和其他可再生能源近年来变得越来越突出。印度在2022年前实现了20吉瓦的太阳能发电产能目标。目前它在全球生产成本最低的太阳能电力。热能一直主导着能源市场。各国已决定采用可再生能源发电并采用绿色能源。本研究使用灰色预测模型DGM(1,1,α)预测了多种来源（水电、太阳能、风能和生物能源）的不可再生和可再生能源。与经典模型DGM(1,1)和EGM(1,1)的比较分析揭示了DGM(1,1,α)的优越性。我们还使用了2009 - 2019年的复合年均增长率来比较实际数据和预测数据的增长率。结果表明，不可再生和可再生能源产量预计将增加。然而，可再生能源中风能的发电量持续增长得比水电、太阳能和生物能源更快。
