Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Mar 30;118(13). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2008128118.
India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India's grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India's proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India's specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India's 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).
印度制定了雄心勃勃的目标，到 2030 年安装超过 400GW 的风能和太阳能发电量，其中超过三分之二的容量来自太阳能。本文研究了在各种风能和太阳能目标（200GW 至 600GW）下，可靠运行印度电网的电力和碳减排成本，以及降低这些成本的最有前途的选择。我们发现，在大多数情况下，太阳能光伏仅占总可再生能源目标的 25%至 50%的系统具有最低的碳减排成本。这一结果促使我们重新审视印度提出的以太阳能为主导的目标。我们还发现，与其他地区相比，与普遍假设相反，实现高可再生能源目标将避免建设很少的新化石燃料（煤炭和天然气）发电厂，因为印度特殊的天气模式和满足高峰电力需求的需要。然而，建设 600GW 的可再生能源容量，其中大部分是风力发电厂，可以减少化石燃料发电厂的运行频率，而这个容量可以将印度 2030 年的排放量控制在低于 2018 年水平，低于碳的社会成本。随着风能和太阳能成本的下降以及煤炭能源成本的上升，平衡或以风能为主导的高可再生能源系统（600GW 或约 45%的能源份额）可能会导致与以化石燃料为主导的系统类似的电力成本。作为满足高峰电力需求的替代策略，电池储能可以避免新的化石燃料容量的需求，但只有在低资本成本（约 150 美元/千瓦时）下才具有成本效益。
