School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, No.2 Ling Gong Road, Dalian 116024, China.
School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, No.2 Ling Gong Road, Dalian 116024, China; Institute of Carbon Peak and Neutrality, Dalian University of Technology, No.2 Ling Gong Road, Dalian 116024, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Dec 20;853:158409. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158409. Epub 2022 Aug 30.
Reducing carbon dioxide (CO) emissions in China's nonferrous metal industry is important for reaching China's ambitious goals for carbon peaking and neutrality. Prior research identified several carbon abatement instruments for the industry. However, the dynamic influence of different mechanisms on CO emissions in the industry remains unclear, and few studies have researched CO emission reductions in two nonferrous metal related industrial subsectors: nonferrous metal ore mining and nonferrous metal smelting. This research evaluated the dynamic effect of abatement instruments on the CO emissions in these two subsectors. The research discovered the factors that are highly linked with CO emissions by using an enhanced Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model. The dynamic influence of these factors on CO emissions in the two subsectors was investigated using a vector autoregressive model. Findings show that in the two subsectors, labour productivity and industrial value-added are the most important factors explaining CO changes. The two variables have a negative long-term effect on CO emissions in the nonferrous metal ores mining, and increase CO emissions in the smelting of nonferrous metals. Improving energy efficiency in the nonferrous metal smelting industry decreases the CO emissions only in the short term. In all sectors, lowering the electrical carbon emission factors and changing the energy structure using different techniques are expected to help reduce long-term CO emissions. These results are critical for the Chinese government in creating long- and short-term energy plans for the nonferrous metal sector.
减少中国有色金属行业的二氧化碳（CO）排放对于实现中国碳峰值和碳中和的宏伟目标至关重要。先前的研究已经确定了该行业的几种碳减排工具。然而，不同机制对该行业 CO 排放的动态影响仍不清楚，并且很少有研究研究两个有色金属相关工业子行业（有色金属矿石开采和有色金属冶炼）的 CO 减排。本研究评估了减排工具对这两个子行业 CO 排放的动态影响。该研究通过使用增强的人口、富裕程度和技术回归冲击模型（Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model），发现了与 CO 排放高度相关的因素。使用向量自回归模型研究了这些因素对两个子行业 CO 排放的动态影响。研究结果表明，在两个子行业中，劳动生产率和工业增加值是解释 CO 变化的最重要因素。这两个变量对有色金属矿石开采的 CO 排放具有长期的负向影响，而对有色金属冶炼的 CO 排放则具有正向影响。提高有色金属冶炼行业的能源效率只能在短期内降低 CO 排放。在所有部门中，降低电力碳排放因子和使用不同技术改变能源结构有望有助于减少长期 CO 排放。这些结果对于中国政府制定有色金属行业的长期和短期能源计划至关重要。
