Evaluating the dynamic effects of mitigation instruments on CO emissions in China's nonferrous metal industry: A vector autoregression analysis.

Reducing carbon dioxide (CO) emissions in China's nonferrous metal industry is important for reaching China's ambitious goals for carbon peaking and neutrality. Prior research identified several carbon abatement instruments for the industry. However, the dynamic influence of different mechanisms on CO emissions in the industry remains unclear, and few studies have researched CO emission reductions in two nonferrous metal related industrial subsectors: nonferrous metal ore mining and nonferrous metal smelting. This research evaluated the dynamic effect of abatement instruments on the CO emissions in these two subsectors. The research discovered the factors that are highly linked with CO emissions by using an enhanced Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model. The dynamic influence of these factors on CO emissions in the two subsectors was investigated using a vector autoregressive model. Findings show that in the two subsectors, labour productivity and industrial value-added are the most important factors explaining CO changes. The two variables have a negative long-term effect on CO emissions in the nonferrous metal ores mining, and increase CO emissions in the smelting of nonferrous metals. Improving energy efficiency in the nonferrous metal smelting industry decreases the CO emissions only in the short term. In all sectors, lowering the electrical carbon emission factors and changing the energy structure using different techniques are expected to help reduce long-term CO emissions. These results are critical for the Chinese government in creating long- and short-term energy plans for the nonferrous metal sector.