Xu Chengzhen, Chen Qingjuan
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 211106, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jun;29(30):45730-45750. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19035-y. Epub 2022 Feb 11.
As an energy-intensive industry in China, it is critical to promote energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in the nonferrous metal industry (NMI). This study first applies the Tapio decoupling model to explore the relationships between the industrial output and CO emission in China's NMI. Then, the Generalized Divisia Index Model (GDIM) is adopted to uncover the factors driving the changes in CO emission from 2000 to 2019, and based on the decomposition results, scenario analysis is used to predict potential CO emission during 2021-2035. The results show that (1) the CO emission in China's NMI increases by 397.93 million tons (Mt) during 2000-2019, and the decoupling state between the industrial output and CO emission is characterized by the weak decoupling status; (2) overall, the output scale is the dominant factor promoting the CO emissions increase, followed by the investment scale and energy consumption scale, while the carbon intensity of output and the carbon intensity of investment are the two most important abatement factors; (3) the scenario analysis indicates that the CO emission from NMI will peak around 2030 under the low-carbon scenario while 2026 under the enhanced low-carbon scenario. Policy suggestions are further put forward for carbon emission reduction in China's NMI.
作为中国的能源密集型产业，促进有色金属行业的节能减排至关重要。本研究首先应用Tapio脱钩模型来探究中国有色金属行业的工业产出与碳排放之间的关系。然后，采用广义迪维西亚指数模型（GDIM）来揭示2000年至2019年碳排放变化的驱动因素，并基于分解结果，运用情景分析来预测2021年至2035年期间的潜在碳排放。结果表明：（1）2000年至2019年期间，中国有色金属行业的碳排放增加了3.9793亿吨，工业产出与碳排放之间的脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主；（2）总体而言，产出规模是推动碳排放增加的主导因素，其次是投资规模和能源消费规模，而产出碳强度和投资碳强度是两个最重要的减排因素；（3）情景分析表明，在低碳情景下，有色金属行业的碳排放将在2030年左右达到峰值，而在强化低碳情景下将在2026年达到峰值。进一步针对中国有色金属行业的碳排放提出了政策建议。
