Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology & Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
J Med Virol. 2023 Jan;95(1):e28118. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28118. Epub 2022 Sep 20.
We aim to evaluate the evolution differences in the incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta and Omicron variants. The average incidence and CFRs were described between different countries. A gamma generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to compare the CFRs of Delta and Omicron variants based on vaccination coverage. Totally, 50 countries were included for analyses. The incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ranged from 0.16/100,000 to 82.95/100,000 during the Delta period and 0.03/100,000 to 440.88/100,000 during the Omicron period. The median CFRs were 8.56 (interquartile range [IQR]: 4.76-18.39) during the Delta period and 3.04 (IQR: 1.87-7.48) during the Omicron period, respectively. A total of 47 out of 50 countries showed decreased CFRs of the Omicron variant with the rate ratio ranging from 0.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-0.03) (in Cambodia) to 0.97 (95% CI: 0.87-1.08) (in Ireland). Gamma GLMM analysis showed that the decreased CFR was largely a result of the decreased pathogenicity of Omicron besides the increased vaccination coverage. The Omicron variant shows a higher incidence but a lower CFR around the world as a whole, which is mainly a result of the decreased pathogenicity by SARS-CoV-2's mutation, while the vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 still acts as a valuable measure in preventing people from death.
我们旨在评估严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 型(SARS-CoV-2)Delta 和奥密克戎变异株的发病率和病死率(CFR)的演变差异。描述了不同国家之间的平均发病率和 CFR。基于疫苗接种覆盖率,使用伽马广义线性混合模型(GLMM)比较了 Delta 和奥密克戎变异株的 CFR。共有 50 个国家纳入分析。Delta 期间,2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的发病率范围为 0.16/100,000 至 82.95/100,000,而奥密克戎期间则为 0.03/100,000 至 440.88/100,000。Delta 期间的中位数 CFR 为 8.56(四分位距 [IQR]:4.76-18.39),奥密克戎期间为 3.04(IQR:1.87-7.48)。在 50 个国家中,共有 47 个国家奥密克戎变异株的 CFR 降低,比率范围为 0.02(95%置信区间 [CI]:0.01-0.03)(柬埔寨)至 0.97(95% CI:0.87-1.08)(爱尔兰)。伽马 GLMM 分析表明,CFR 降低主要是由于奥密克戎的致病性降低,除了疫苗接种覆盖率增加之外。奥密克戎变异株在全球范围内的发病率较高,但病死率较低,这主要是由于 SARS-CoV-2 突变导致其致病性降低,而接种 SARS-CoV-2 疫苗仍然是预防死亡的一项有价值的措施。