Kim Kisong, Cho Kyuyeon, Song Junmin, Rahmati Masoud, Koyanagi Ai, Lee Seung Won, Yon Dong Keon, Il Shin Jae, Smith Lee
Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, Republic of Korea.
J Med Virol. 2023 Feb;95(2):e28522. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28522.
As coronavirus variants are constantly occurring, we tried to understand more about the omicron and delta variants that have hit the world. We provided dynamic information on the case fatality rate (CFR) of the Omicron variant over time and to compare it with that of the Delta variant through meta-analysis. Twenty-four countries were selected by submission counts, submission dates, and confirmed cases. We defined the Delta or the Omicron epidemic period for individual countries as when each variant is over 90%. We further analyzed the Omicron period by dividing it into the initial plateau, increasing, and decreasing phases according to the number of newly confirmed daily cases. Finally, the meta-analysis examined the summary and between-study heterogeneity. The CFR of COVID-19 during the Omicron epidemic was lower than that during the Delta epidemic (odds ratio [OR]: 0.252, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.205-0.309). The CFR of COVID-19 during the initial plateau phase of Omicron was higher than during other phases. (OR: 1.962, 95% CI 1.607-2.397). The CFR of COVID-19 during the increasing phase was lower than during the decreasing phases (OR: 0.412, 95% CI 0.342-0.498). The Omicron variant had lower CFR compared to the Delta variant, and the initial plateau phase had higher CFR compared to the noninitial phases. These results can help establish global health policies for COVID-19 in the future.
由于新冠病毒变种不断出现,我们试图更深入地了解席卷全球的奥密克戎变种和德尔塔变种。我们提供了奥密克戎变种随时间变化的病死率动态信息,并通过荟萃分析将其与德尔塔变种的病死率进行比较。根据提交数量、提交日期和确诊病例数,选择了24个国家。我们将各个国家的德尔塔或奥密克戎流行期定义为每个变种占比超过90%的时期。我们根据每日新增确诊病例数将奥密克戎时期进一步分为初始平台期、上升期和下降期。最后,荟萃分析检验了汇总结果和研究间的异质性。奥密克戎流行期间新冠病毒病的病死率低于德尔塔流行期间(优势比[OR]:0.252,95%置信区间[CI] 0.205 - 0.309)。奥密克戎初始平台期新冠病毒病的病死率高于其他阶段(OR:1.962,95% CI 1.607 - 2.397)。新冠病毒病上升期的病死率低于下降期(OR:0.412,95% CI 0.342 - 0.498)。与德尔塔变种相比,奥密克戎变种的病死率较低,且初始平台期的病死率高于非初始阶段。这些结果有助于未来制定全球新冠病毒病防控政策。
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