Qi Di, Ali Arshad, Li Tao, Chen Yuan-Chun, Tan Jiachao
Institute of Quality Development Strategy, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Department of Economics and Finance, Greenwich University, Karachi, Pakistan.
Front Psychol. 2022 Aug 18;13:959026. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.959026. eCollection 2022.
China's domestic labor market has limited demand for tertiary graduates due to an unbalanced industrial structure, with a weak contribution to economic performance over the past decade. This study estimates the asymmetric effects of higher education progress (highly educated employed workforce), higher education utilization (highly educated unemployed workforce), and the separate effects of higher education utilization interactions with high-tech industries on economic growth in China from 1980 to 2020. Using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, this study finds that the expansion of higher education progress (the employed workforce with higher education) promotes economic growth, while contraction of higher education progress (employed workforce with higher education) reduces economic growth. Likewise, an increase in higher education utilization (the unemployed labor force with higher education) suppresses economic growth, while a decline in the higher education utilization (the unemployed labor force with higher education) promotes economic growth. The study also found that the expansion of high-tech industries and government spending on education significantly stimulate economic growth. The moderating role of higher education utilization (unemployed labor force with higher education) in the impact of high-tech industries on economic growth is significantly positive. This study strategically proposes that China's higher-educated unemployed labor force can be adjusted to high-tech industries, which need to be developed equally in all regions. Moreover, the country is required to invest more in higher education and the development of high technological industries across all regions, thus may lead to higher economic growth.
由于产业结构失衡，中国国内劳动力市场对高等教育毕业生的需求有限，在过去十年中对经济表现的贡献较弱。本研究估计了1980年至2020年高等教育进展（受过高等教育的就业劳动力）、高等教育利用率（受过高等教育的失业劳动力）以及高等教育利用率与高科技产业相互作用对中国经济增长的不对称影响。使用非线性自回归分布滞后（NARDL）模型，本研究发现高等教育进展的扩大（受过高等教育的就业劳动力）促进经济增长，而高等教育进展的收缩（受过高等教育的就业劳动力）则降低经济增长。同样，高等教育利用率的增加（受过高等教育的失业劳动力）抑制经济增长，而高等教育利用率的下降（受过高等教育的失业劳动力）促进经济增长。该研究还发现，高科技产业的扩张和政府在教育上的支出显著刺激经济增长。高等教育利用率（受过高等教育的失业劳动力）在高科技产业对经济增长的影响中的调节作用显著为正。本研究从战略上提出，可以将中国受过高等教育的失业劳动力调整到高科技产业，而高科技产业需要在所有地区均衡发展。此外，国家需要在所有地区加大对高等教育和高科技产业发展的投资，从而可能带来更高的经济增长。
