Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi (RMUTT), Thanyaburi, Pathumthani 12110, Thailand.
Institute for Ground Water Studies, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, South Africa.
Biomed Res Int. 2022 Aug 24;2022:9932483. doi: 10.1155/2022/9932483. eCollection 2022.
The aim of this study is to predict the COVID-19 infection fifth wave in South Africa using the Gaussian mixture model for the available data of the early four waves for March 18, 2020-April 13, 2022. The quantification data is considered, and the time unit is used in days. We give the modeling of COVID-19 in South Africa and predict the future fifth wave in the country. Initially, we use the Gaussian mixture model to characterize the coronavirus infection to fit the early reported cases of four waves and then to predict the future wave. Actual data and the statistical analysis using the Gaussian mixture model are performed which give close agreement with each other, and one can able to predict the future wave. After that, we fit and predict the fifth wave in the country and it is predicted to be started in the last week of May 2022 and end in the last week of September 2022. It is predicted that the peak may occur on the third week of July 2022 with a high number of 19383 cases. The prediction of the fifth wave can be useful for the health authorities in order to prepare themselves for medical setup and other necessary measures. Further, we use the result obtained from the Gaussian mixture model in the new model formulated in terms of differential equations. The differential equations model is simulated for various values of the model parameters in order to determine the disease's possible eliminations.
本研究的目的是使用高斯混合模型预测南非的 COVID-19 感染第五波，使用的是 2020 年 3 月 18 日至 2022 年 4 月 13 日的前四波的可用数据。考虑量化数据，时间单位为天。我们对南非的 COVID-19 进行建模并预测该国未来的第五波疫情。最初，我们使用高斯混合模型来描述冠状病毒感染，以拟合前四波报告的病例，然后预测未来的波次。实际数据和使用高斯混合模型的统计分析结果非常吻合，可以预测未来的波次。之后，我们拟合并预测了该国的第五波疫情，预计将在 2022 年 5 月最后一周开始，2022 年 9 月最后一周结束。预计 7 月第三周将达到高峰，病例数为 19383 例。对第五波疫情的预测可以为卫生当局提供有用的信息，以便为医疗设置和其他必要措施做好准备。此外，我们还将从高斯混合模型中获得的结果应用于新模型，该模型是用微分方程来表述的。为了确定疾病的可能消除情况，我们对微分方程模型的各种模型参数进行了模拟。
