Norling Johannes
Department of Economics, Mount Holyoke College, 50 College Street, South Hadley, MA 01075.
J Demogr Economics. 2022 Sep;88(3):257-282. doi: 10.1017/dem.2020.32. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actual have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.
平均而言，收入动态跟踪调查所观察的无子女女性报告称，她们打算生育的子女数量多于其实际生育数量。一组仅记录受访者是否打算再要一个孩子的意向能更准确地预测其生育的子女数量。无需用意向形成过程中的误差来解释这一发现。相反，如果意向记录的是调查受访者最有可能预测的子女数量，那么即便意向是基于理性预期形成的，这些意向的平均值也不一定等于实际平均生育率。
