生育期望在生命历程中的演变。
The evolution of fertility expectations over the life course.
机构信息
School of Social and Family Dynamics, Arizona State University, PO Box 873701, Tempe, AZ 85287-3701, USA.
出版信息
Demography. 2009 Nov;46(4):765-83. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0073.
Abstract
In low-fertility contexts, how many children people have is largely a product of how many children they want. However, the social, institutional, and individual factors that influence how many children people want are not well understood. In particular, there is scant evidence about how fertility expectations change over the life course. This article provides an empirical description of changes in women's expected fertility over the entire span of childbearing years. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 cohort, group-based trajectory analysis illuminates common patterns in the evolution of fertility intentions and identifies individual characteristics associated with these patterns. Factors related to family formation, such as marriage and whether a woman has a child at an early age, are found to be the most consistent correlates of patterns of change in expected family size.
摘要
在低生育率环境下，人们生育的孩子数量在很大程度上取决于他们的生育意愿。然而，影响人们生育意愿的社会、制度和个人因素尚未得到很好的理解。特别是，关于生育期望如何随着生命历程而变化的证据很少。本文对女性在整个生育年龄阶段的预期生育变化进行了实证描述。利用 1979 年全国青年纵向调查的数据，基于群组的轨迹分析揭示了生育意愿演变的常见模式，并确定了与这些模式相关的个体特征。与家庭形成相关的因素，如婚姻以及女性是否在年轻时生育，被发现是影响预期家庭规模变化模式的最一致的相关因素。
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