[Pathogen Distribution,Imaging Characteristics,and Establishment and Verification of Risk Prediction Model of Pulmonary Infection with Multi-drug Resistant Organism in Patients with Severe Craniocerebral Injury].

Objective To investigate the pathogen distribution,imaging characteristics,and risk factors of pulmonary infection with multi-drug resistant organism (MDRO) in patients with severe craniocerebral injury,and establish and verify the risk prediction model. Methods A total of 230 patients with severe craniocerebral injury complicated with pulmonary infection were collected retrospectively.According to the 7∶3 ratio,they were randomly assigned into a modeling group (161 patients) and a validation group (69 patients).The risk factors of MDRO pulmonary infection were predicted with the data of the modeling group for the establishment of the risk prediction model.The data of the validation group was used to validate the performance of the model. Results Among the 230 patients,68 patients developed MDRO pulmonary infection.The isolated drug-resistant bacteria mainly included multi-drug resistant ,multi-drug resistant ,multi-drug resistant ,and methicillin-resistant ,which accounted for 45.21%,23.29%,16.44%,and 15.07%,respectively.The imaging characteristics included pleural effusion,lung consolidation,and ground-glass shadow,which accounted for 72.06%,63.24%,and 45.59%,respectively.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for MDRO pulmonary infection included age ≥60 years (=0.003),history of diabetes (=0.021),history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (=0.038),mechanical ventilation ≥7 d (=0.001),transfer from other hospitals (=0.008),and coma (=0.002).A risk scoring model was established with the value (rounded to the nearest integer) corresponding to each index in the regression equation.Specifically,the values of age ≥60 years,history of diabetes,history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,mechanical ventilation ≥7 d,transfer from other hospitals,and coma were 1,1,1,2,2,and 1,respectively (value ≥4 indicated a high-risk population).The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling group and validation group were 0.845 and 0.809,respectively. Conclusions Multi-drug resistant is the most common pathogen of MDRO pulmonary infection in patients with severe craniocerebral injury.Pleural effusion,lung consolidation,and ground-glass shadow were the most common imaging characteristics.The established risk model has high discriminant validity in both the modeling group and the validation group.