Zhou Xiaoxuan, Jing Danyue, Dai Lei, Wang Yubing, Guo Siqing, Hu Hao
State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China.
Department of Transportation Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China.
Ocean Coast Manag. 2022 Nov 1;230:106339. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106339. Epub 2022 Sep 2.
The stability of shipping and port operations are crucial for international trade and global supply chain. However, the COVID-19 pandemic hit the shipping and port industry enormously in late 2019, and continues till now. It is important to identify the impacts of the pandemic on shipping and port operations and evaluate the potential economic impacts for better setting future development strategies and policies. A System Dynamics (SD) model is proposed to depict the impact transmission within the supply chain considering 5 sub-systems (shipping, port, transportation, manufacturing and social). Potential economic impacts which are represented by the shipping loss and port loss will be assessed. 6 scenarios with different epidemic durations and capacity recovery degrees have been set to investigate the economic impacts. The port of Shanghai, together with the container shipping business is selected as input for case study. Results indicate that in the first few months the port and carriers may suffer economic loss due to shrunken demand caused by COVID-19. But later carriers may enjoy an increase of income compared to non-pandemic scenario owing to strong recovery in most scenarios. Moreover, we found that manufacturing, transportation and port operation capacities would jointly affect the recovery process and economic impacts. The findings can facilitate policy makers in making port management and future industry development decisions.
航运和港口运营的稳定性对国际贸易和全球供应链至关重要。然而，2019年末新冠疫情对航运和港口行业造成了巨大冲击，且持续至今。识别疫情对航运和港口运营的影响，并评估潜在的经济影响，对于更好地制定未来发展战略和政策很重要。本文提出了一个系统动力学（SD）模型，以描述考虑5个子系统（航运、港口、运输、制造和社会）的供应链内的影响传递。将评估以航运损失和港口损失表示的潜在经济影响。设定了6种不同疫情持续时间和产能恢复程度的情景，以研究经济影响。选择上海港以及集装箱航运业务作为案例研究的输入。结果表明，在最初几个月，由于新冠疫情导致需求萎缩，港口和承运人可能遭受经济损失。但在大多数情景中，由于强劲复苏，与无疫情情景相比，承运人后期可能会获得收入增长。此外，我们发现制造、运输和港口运营能力将共同影响复苏进程和经济影响。这些发现有助于政策制定者做出港口管理和未来行业发展决策。
