McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Institut für Archäologische Wissenschaften, Ruhr Universität Bochum, Bochum, Germany.
PLoS One. 2022 Sep 7;17(9):e0260904. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260904. eCollection 2022.
The domestication of plants and the origin of agricultural societies has been the focus of much theoretical discussion on why, how, when, and where these happened. The 'when' and 'where' have been substantially addressed by different branches of archaeology, thanks to advances in methodology and the broadening of the geographical and chronological scope of evidence. However, the 'why' and 'how' have lagged behind, holding on to relatively old models with limited explanatory power. Armed with the evidence now available, we can return to theory by revisiting the mechanisms allegedly involved, disentangling their connection to the diversity of trajectories, and identifying the weight and role of the parameters involved. We present the Human-Plant Coevolution (HPC) model, which represents the dynamics of coevolution between a human and a plant population. The model consists of an ecological positive feedback system (mutualism), which can be reinforced by positive evolutionary feedback (coevolution). The model formulation is the result of wiring together relatively simple simulation models of population ecology and evolution, through a computational implementation in R. The HPC model captures a variety of potential scenarios, though which conditions are linked to the degree and timing of population change and the intensity of selective pressures. Our results confirm that the possible trajectories leading to neolithisation are diverse and involve multiple factors. However, simulations also show how some of those factors are entangled, what are their effects on human and plant populations under different conditions, and what might be the main causes fostering agriculture and domestication.
植物的驯化和农业社会的起源一直是理论讨论的焦点，讨论的内容包括这些事件发生的原因、方式、时间和地点。由于方法的进步和证据的地理和时间范围的扩大，考古学的不同分支已经在很大程度上解决了“时间”和“地点”的问题。然而，“原因”和“方式”却落后了，仍然坚持相对陈旧的模型，这些模型的解释力有限。有了现在可用的证据，我们可以通过重新审视据称涉及的机制，理清它们与不同轨迹的联系，并确定所涉及参数的权重和作用，从而回到理论。我们提出了人类-植物协同进化（HPC）模型，该模型代表了人类和植物种群之间协同进化的动态。该模型由一个生态正反馈系统（互利共生）组成，这个系统可以通过正进化反馈（协同进化）得到加强。该模型的构建是通过将种群生态学和进化的相对简单的模拟模型连接起来，通过在 R 中进行计算实现的。HPC 模型捕捉到了各种潜在的情景，通过这些情景可以将条件与人口变化的程度和时间以及选择压力的强度联系起来。我们的结果证实，导致新石器时代的可能轨迹是多种多样的，涉及多个因素。然而，模拟也显示了这些因素是如何纠缠在一起的，它们在不同条件下对人类和植物种群的影响是什么，以及促进农业和驯化的主要原因可能是什么。
